Saints vs. Rams odds, line: 2019 NFC Championship Game picks, NFL playoff predictions from model on 16-6 heater

Saints quarterback Drew Brees and Rams quarterback Jared Goff both threw 32 touchdowns during the regular season. Brees led the NFL in QB rating at 115.7, while Goff was fourth in passing yardage with 4,688. Rams running back Todd Gurley was a workhorse, piling up 89.4 rushing yards per game, trailing only Ezekiel Elliott, while Saints back Alvin Kamara was second in rushing TDs with 14, second only to Gurley. Given these teams' eye-popping regular season numbers, Sunday's NFC Championship Game between the Rams and Saints promises plenty of fireworks. New Orleans is favored by a field goal at home in the latest Saints vs. Rams odds, while the Over-Under for total points scored is 56.5. On the money line, the Saints are -160 (risk $160 to win $100), while L.A. is +144 (risk $100 to win $144). Before you make your NFL playoff predictions for the NFC Championship Game 2019, be sure to check out the Saints vs. Rams picks from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 straight up last season and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018-19, entering the championship round on a blistering 16-6 run. For the season, it is now 30-15 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-49. It also went 170-84 on straight-up NFL picks during the regular season, ranking inside the top 10 on NFLPickWatch.com. Additionally, it is 7-1 on all against-the-spread 2019 NFL playoff picks. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has crunched the numbers for Rams vs. Saints (stream live on fuboTV) and simulated the entire NFC Championship Game 10,000 times. We can tell you it's leaning over, but it has also generated a point-spread pick that hits more than 50 percent of the time. You can only see that one at SportsLine. 

The model knows the Saints have a distinct home-field advantage in this one, having won 15 of their last 17 games at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. And the Saints are undefeated at home in the playoffs since Sean Payton took over as head coach in 2006. You can expect a raucous crowd in New Orleans on Sunday as the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoff bracket looks to secure its place in the 2019 Super Bowl.

New Orleans features an explosive offense that finished the regular season ranked in the top 10 in points per game (31.5), rushing yards per game (126.6) and total yards per game (379.2). They beat the Rams by 10 in the first meeting back in November, pulling away in the fourth quarter and scoring the last 10 points on a 54-yard Will Lutz field goal and a Brees-to-Michael Thomas pass for 72 yards. 

Mark Ingram is a bruising back for the Saints who enters Sunday's showdown averaging 4.5 yards per carry. If the Saints can control the tempo and allow their playmakers to get in space, they could cover against the Rams for the second time this season.

But just because New Orleans is at home and has already handled L.A. doesn't mean Brees and company will cover the Saints vs. Rams spread.

The model also knows that as the Rams look to pull off the upset at the NFC Championship Game 2019, one of the keys will be their ability to create advantageous matchups for superstar defensive tackle Aaron Donald

The first-team All-Pro had a monstrous regular season with 20.5 sacks, 25 tackles for loss and 41 quarterback hits. In the first meeting, Donald provided regular pressure, hitting Brees four times, but the Saints did just enough to disrupt his work rate that they kept him from clogging the box score like he usually does. Still, Donald recovered a fumble in that game and had a tackle for loss.

The Rams have won and covered three straight in wins over the Cowboys, 49ers, and Cardinals. And despite the Saints' overall dominance in the Superdome, New Orleans is only 4-5 against the spread at home this season.

Who wins Rams vs. Saints? And which side of the spread cashes over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Saints vs. Rams spread you need to jump on in the 2019 NFL Playoffs, all from the computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors over the past two seasons.

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