Saturday NFL games: Browns vs. Broncos odds, line, best picks from advanced model on 16-3 roll

The Denver Broncos have owned the Cleveland Browns over the years, but both teams need a win to stay in the NFL playoff picture. It's a rare Saturday night football treat when these two teams face off at 8:20 p.m. in Denver. The Broncos (6-7) and Browns (5-7-1) remain alive in the AFC playoff picture, but Saturday's loser is likely out of it. There has been plenty of line movement throughout the week. In the latest Browns vs. Broncos odds, Denver is favored by 1.5 after the spread opened at four, while the over-under is at 47, up from 44. Denver has beaten Cleveland 11 straight times over a span of 27 years, but before backing either side with your own Browns vs. Broncos picks and predictions, you'll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is locking in.

In a straight-up, pick'em format, the proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and 2017, performing better than 98 percent of experts tracked by during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 15 on a blistering 16-3 run. For the season, it is now 30-12 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-46. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 139-67 on the season, ranking in the top two on Anybody who has been following it is way, way up. 

Now, it has simulated Broncos vs. Browns 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning toward the Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations. One side is clearly showing value over the other, and you can only see which one at SportsLine.

The computer knows the Broncos took a step back last week in a 20-14 loss to the 49ers as three-point favorites. But Denver had won three in a row before that against quality competition. They should be better prepared after the mid-week loss of top wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (Achilles). 

Denver certainly has a running back it can lean on in rookie Philip Lindsay, who has 967 yards and nine touchdowns on a 5.8-per-carry clip. Quarterback Case Keenum has cut down on the turnovers that plagued him early on, and hasn't thrown an interception in the last five games.

And of course, Denver's defense is the key, led by two tenacious linebackers in Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. They've combined for 25.5 sacks as the Broncos rank No. 4 in sacks (40) and No. 5 in picks (14). 

Just because the Broncos have a strong defense and can run the ball doesn't mean they'll cover against the resurgent Browns.

Cleveland has won three of four and is just two games behind the Steelers in the AFC North. Rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield has been dynamic if inconsistent, but his play-making abilities have been a huge difference to a team that went 0-16 last season. The Browns also have an emerging run game led rookie Nick Chubb, who has averaged 84 yards in his seven starts with a touchdown in five straight games. 

Cleveland's defense has been aggressive despite getting shredded through the air. It ranks third in the league with 15 picks and has a dynamic defensive end in Myles Garrett, who has 12.5 sacks. 

Who wins Browns vs. Broncos? And which side of the spread hits nearly 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors over the past two seasons.

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