Two of the AFC's best teams face off on "Sunday Night Football," this week, as the 11-1 Pittsburgh Steelers make their way to Orchard Park to take on the 9-3 Buffalo Bills. The Steelers are coming off of their first loss of the season, which was handed to them by the Washington Football Team. The Bills on the other hand are coming off of a momentous win over the San Francisco 49ers, in which Josh Allen completed 80 percent of his passes for 375 yards and four touchdowns. These teams appear to be moving in different directions, but could that narrative be flipped yet again this week?
The Steelers lead the all-time series against the Bills, 14-9, and have won six out of the past seven matchups. Below, we will get you caught up on the most intriguing betting angles to get you locked in before kickoff.
All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
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This line reopened at Steelers -2.5 on Sunday night, but then it fell to Steelers -1.5 on Monday. After the Steelers' loss to Washington, this line reopened as a pick'em with a slight lean towards Pittsburgh, but then swung in Buffalo's direction and did not stop there. By Tuesday night, the Bills were 2.5-point favorites. That line ended up falling half a point by Thursday, however.
The pick: Steelers +2. Yes, Buffalo's stock is rising, while Pittsburgh's is falling. Still, does what happened on Monday justify what was a five-point swing in favor of the Bills? I get that the Steelers haven't been playing well, but they get James Conner back this week and maybe they just needed to get that first loss out of the way. I refuse to think the 11-1 Steelers are frauds like so many do.
The total reopened at 47.5 on Monday morning, but it fell a full point to 46.5 by Tuesday. By Thursday, the total started to rise again and got as high as 48.5 on Saturday morning.
The pick: Over 48. Steelers' Unders have been cash as of late, but I'm leaning towards the Over in this matchup. The Steelers and Bills are No. 7 and No. 8 in the league when it comes to points scored per game. With how Mike Tomlin has been letting Ben Roethlisberger throw as of late and with the Bills' lack of a ground game, you're telling me these teams can't score 24 points apiece in this primetime matchup?
- O/U 27.5 completions
- O/U 284.5 passing yards
- O/U 1.5 passing touchdowns (Under +140)
- O/U 0.5 interceptions (Under +120)
- O/U 42.5 pass attempts
The Steelers may be masters of the Under, but the Overs on Roethlisberger's props are usually a smart play. Just looking at the last three games, Roethlisberger has gone over 27.5 completions and over 42.5 passing attempts in each contest. I have no read on passing yards, but I think taking the Over on passing touchdowns is probably a smart play.
- O/U 23.5 completions
- O/U 281.5 passing yards
- O/U 1.5 passing touchdowns (Under +150)
- O/U 29.5 rushing yards
- O/U 0.5 interceptions (Under +105)
- O/U 37.5 pass attempts
Like with Roethlisberger's props, I'm leaning towards the Overs on Allen's passing attempts and completions. I'll take the Over on passing touchdowns as well. I took the Unders on most of Allen's props last week and got absolutely burned, so I'm not going to let that happen again.
Other props to consider
James Conner total rushing yards: Over 47.5 (-110). The Steelers have really missed Conner in the backfield over the past few weeks, and I think they are going to celebrate his return by giving him some touches. I simply think this prop is too low, as Conner averages 64.5 rushing yards per game.
Stefon Diggs total receptions: Over 5.5 (-145). If you're surprised this prop is heavily favored, don't be. Diggs caught all 10 of his targets against the 49ers on Monday, seven of nine targets against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 12, and then all 10 of his targets against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10. Whether he puts up 118 receiving yards or just 39, Diggs is going to get his touches.
Tyler Bass total made extra points: Over 2.5 (-110). Bass has been my secret cash cow this year. I understand looking at player props for kickers isn't fun, but I feel like I have had good reads on them this season. Bass has made at least three extra points in five straight games, so I'll take the Over again this week.