The Pittsburgh Steelers are already 1-0 in Aaron Rodgers bowls this season, having beaten the New York Jets 34-32 in Week 1. On Sunday Night Football, Rodgers will face his more notable former team, as the Green Bay Packers come to town for a Week 8 matchup in primetime. Rodgers spent 18 years in Green Bay before spending two years in New York, and is off to a 4-2 start as the QB in Pittsburgh. He is tied for fourth in the NFL in passing touchdowns (14) entering the week, but is only averaging 211.7 passing yards per game. According to the latest NFL odds, Rodgers and the Steelers are three-point underdogs at home.
The latest Steelers vs. Packers odds from FanDuel list his over/under for total passing yards at 218.5, which is why the SportsLine Projection Model favors the Under on Sunday. With Micah Parsons and a top-10 Green Bay defense looming, it predicts that Rodgers averages 198 passing yards, and is adding two more NFL player props to build an NFL same-game parlay that pays better than 7-1.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model is on a sizzling 43-28 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Three SNF SGP betting picks for NFL Week 8 (odds subject to change):
- Aaron Rodgers, Steelers, Under 218.5 passing yards (-114)
- D.K. Metcalf, Steelers, Over 60.5 receiving yards (-114)
- Josh Jacobs, Packers, Over 16.5 carries (-125)
Combining the model's three Steelers vs. Packers picks into a same-game parlay at FanDuel would result in a payout of +706 (risk $100 to win $706).
Aaron Rodgers, Steelers, Under 218.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel)
At 41, Rodgers is still one of the league's best decision-makers and most accurate passers, as evidenced by his 14:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and his 68.2% completion rate. However, Pittsburgh hasn't exactly tested him with a wide-open passing attack. Rodgers ranks 37th among NFL quarterbacks in air yards per attempt (6.1) and has relied pretty heavily on YAC for explosive passing plays. With Parsons coming after him, expect the ball to come out of Rodgers' hands even quicker, which is why the model is backing the Under her.
D.K. Metcalf, Steelers, Over 60.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
Threading the negative correlation needle can be tricky, but it can enhance payouts for same-game parlays and Metcalf can be a one-man wrecking crew when he's at the top of his game. He ranks second among NFL wide receivers in YAC (240), fifth in yards per reception (18.5) and 14th in air yards share (37.1%). One big chunk play can eat into most or even all of this total, and the model predicts that Metcalf with four catches for 68 yards on average.
Josh Jacobs, Packers, Over 16.5 carries (-125, FanDuel)
Jacobs is only averaging 3.7 yards per carry this season after averaging 4.4 last season, but Green Bay still hasn't been shy about using him as their hammer. He's carried 111 times in six games (18.5 attempts per game) and he could be even more heavily involved than usual against a surprisingly suspect Pittsburgh run defense. The Steelers ranked sixth in run defense and fifth in yards allowed per carry last season, but rank 17th and 20th in those categories, respectively, in 2025. The model predicts 18 carries on average for Jacobs.
