Sunday Night Football odds, line: Patriots vs. Lions picks, predictions from model on 53-36 roll
Our advanced computer model simulated Sunday's Lions vs. Patriots game 10,000 times
The master and his pupil meet in a highly-anticipated Sunday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and Detroit Lions at 8:20 p.m. ET. Future Hall-of-Famer Bill Belichick squares off against his longtime defensive coordinator and current Lions head coach Matt Patricia. Both teams have struggled to find their footing early on as the 1-1 Patriots are coming off a tough loss in Jacksonville. Meanwhile, the Lions are still seeking their first win after losses to the Jets and 49ers. New England is a 6.5-point road favorite after the line opened at seven. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, has risen dramatically from 47 to 55. New England is -320 on the money line (risk $320 to win $100), while the Lions are +240 (risk $100 to win $240).
The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, has risen dramatically from 47 to 55. Before you lock in any Patriots vs. Lions picks, you need to see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
In a straight-up, pick-'em format, their proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and 2017, performing better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up over $4,000.
It also nailed its last three top-rated picks in Week 2, including backing the Kansas City Chiefs against the spread (+4.5) and on the money line (+170) for their big upset of the Pittsburgh Steelers. It's now 5-2 on top-rated picks this season, extending its run to 53-36.
Now, the computer has simulated New England vs. Detroit 10,000 times. It also has scrutinized this game from every possible angle. We can tell you it's leaning toward the Under, but its bold point-spread pick that hits in almost 60 percent of simulations can be found only over at SportsLine.
The model knows that, even at 41, Tom Brady is showing no signs of age. He has already thrown for over 500 yards and five touchdowns in his first two games. With a completion percentage of 68, he has plenty of sure-handed receiving targets. Tight end Rob Gronkowski is Brady's go-to guy. Gronk leads the Pats with 138 receiving yards and has one score. Wideout Phillip Dorsett has racked up 110 receiving yards and one score, while Chris Hogan has found pay dirt twice despite only four grabs.
Brady is sixth in the NFL in touchdowns, and the Patriots just traded for Browns wide receiver Josh Gordon, although the former Cleveland wideout may not play much, if at all, on Sunday Night Football. Lions receiver Marvin Jones is also questionable with an ankle injury.
Then there's the Bill Belichick factor. The Patriots' coach is 14-8 all-time against former assistants and on Sunday Night Football, he'll tangle with Matt Patricia, New England's defensive coordinator from 2012-17.
Just because the Belichick has his former coordinators' number doesn't mean New England will cover as a touchdown favorite on the road.
The Lions may be 0-2, but Matthew Stafford has been airing it out this season. Stafford is seventh in the NFL in passing yards with 633 and No. 2 in attempts at 99. Detroit is 13th in total yards at 766 and sixth in passing yards at 314.5 per game. If there's a team that can keep up with the high-flying Patriots, it's the Lions indoors at Ford Field. And don't forget the Patriots lost to the Jaguars, who were without all-world running back Leonard Fournette, last week.
Detroit also comes armed with plenty of pass-catchers to rack up points. Kenny Golladay is the team's leading receiver with 203 yards and one touchdown. He lines up with Golden Tate (188 yards) and Jones, who has 108. While running back Theo Riddick has only four carries, he does have 14 grabs for 62 yards.
So, which side of the Patriots vs. Lions spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to be all over, all from the incredible computer model that has returned over $4,000 to $100 bettors.
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