Throughout this week, I've been breaking down all the key matchups that will affect the outcome of Super Bowl LIII, which you can stream here on CBSSports.com or on CBS All Access. The Patriots and the Rams are two of the most dynamic, versatile teams in the league, and they also each happen to be incredibly well-coached on both sides of the ball. That makes for a fascinating tactical battle, which should in turn lead to a wildly compelling football game. 

Patriots -2.5 vs. Rams

Running through the 15 different matchups spotlighted in those two posts, it's extremely difficult to see either of these two teams blowing the other out of the water. Most of the battles feature players and/or coaches who are at or near the top of their profession, matching strength vs. strength.  

Looking through that list of matchups, there are very few obvious major advantages for either team. The closest we come is probably these two: James White vs. Corey Littleton and Mark Barron; and Robert Woods vs. Jason McCourty. Those are not exactly the marquee matchups most people think will decide the outcome of this contest, but they could end up being wildly important, given the construction of each team's roster. 

From Gladys Knight's anthem to who will score first to Maroon 5 to the Super Bowl MVP, get everything you need to make the right picks for Sunday in our Ultimate Super Bowl Props guide.

The more I think about it, though, I can't get over the advantages the Patriots have at coach and quarterback. It just seems like Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels, and Tom Brady are more likely to win their respective mind-game matchups against Sean McVay and Jared Goff (Belichick), and Wade Phillips (McDaniels and Brady) than to be on the losing end.

Belichick excels at taking away what an opposing offense does best. He especially excels at confusing young quarterbacks and forcing them to beat him by making uncomfortable throws. McDaniels crafts his game-plan specifically to defeat that week's opponent, zeroing in on the one thing they do not do well and ruthlessly attacking that weakness. Brady excels at neutralizing pass rushers by identifying where they're coming from, changing protections, and getting the ball out as quickly as possible to the receiver who will be the most open, the soonest after the snap. He especially excels at doing this by hitting receivers in the slot and out of the backfield, which is where the Patriots happen to have the biggest personnel advantages in this game. 

McVay is perhaps the most creative offensive coach in the league, and the design of his offense -- with all the crossing patterns and mesh concepts -- is almost perfectly constructed to defeat a team that plays as much man coverage as these Patriots. His willingness to force defenses into light personnel (by using three wide receivers to get them into nickel and dime packages) and run the ball down their throats differentiates him from Mike Martz, whom Belichick dared to throw the ball in the first Super Bowl matchup between these two teams 17 years ago. Goff's play-action prowess makes him a specific kind of dangerous against a New England pass rush that often is slowed down by play-fakes. His accuracy during the second half of the NFC title game is the kind of thing he'll need to win in this matchup. And Phillips has proven in the past that when he has the right personnel, he can and will get to Brady and force him into uncomfortable throws. And the Rams do have that personnel. (Hello, Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh.)

If I were to be which of those trios would prevail on Sunday, though, I'd have to go with the Pats. Even though I'm of the belief that the Rams probably have the better overall roster (as evidenced by their advantages at running back, wide receiver, and especially defensive line), it just doesn't seem like that matters quite as much as having advantages at coach and quarterback. That's just the reality of the NFL in 2018. I wouldn't be shocked if the Rams pull off a win. They're damn good and they've got the right kind of makeup to beat a Patriots team in the Super Bowl, just as the Giants and Eagles have in previous seasons. I just don't think that's the most likely outcome. 

Prediction: Patriots 30, Rams 26
Pick: Patriots -2.5

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