The Steelers, by virtue of Sunday's 27-24 win over the previously undefeated Titans and the Seahawks' overtime loss in prime time, are the NFL's last undefeated team. Pittsburgh is now projected by SportsLine to have the best record in the AFC after improving to 6-0, and the projection model also sees the Steelers as a good value to win the Super Bowl at their current odds from William Hill Sportsbook.
The Steelers' Week 8 opponent, the Ravens, are also considered a good Super Bowl value. Baltimore, the AFC's top seed last season before it was upset by the Titans in the divisional round of the playoffs, is 5-1 and coming off a Week 7 bye.
"As the only undefeated team in the league the Steelers are projected for the best record in the AFC now and are a good value to win the Super Bowl at 12.8% in sims and +900, 10% (on the betting market)," said SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh. "The Ravens off a bye are still a good value to win the Super Bowl at 17.7% and +600, 14.3% odds."
While the Chiefs still have the highest percentage among AFC teams to reach the Super Bowl, they no longer possess value from a betting standpoint. The reason, according to Oh, is the emergence of the Steelers, as well as Kansas City's remaining schedule (which includes the Dolphins, Raiders and Chargers). Those factors hurt the Chiefs' chances at claiming the No. 1 seed entering the playoffs. The No. 1 seed has even more significance than in years past, as it will be the only team from each conference that will get a playoff bye after the playoff field was increased from 12 to 14 teams.
The Chiefs, the AFC's No. 2 seed in 2019, received a bye last year before defeating Houston and Tennessee in the AFC playoffs. If this year's playoff format existed then, the Chiefs would have instead hosted the 8-8 Steelers in the wild-card round.
Sunday's loss dropped the Titans' Super Bowl odds from 5.7% to 4.3%. Tennessee, however, still has an 81% chance to win the division at -210, 67.7% odds. Another previously undefeated team that saw its Super Bowl odds dip was the Seahawks, who fell to the Cardinals on Sunday night. Seattle's Super Bowl odds dropped from 12.2% to 9.1% (+1000, 9.1%). The Packers, a week after suffering their first loss of the season in Tampa, did not see their Super Bowl odds rise that much after defeating the Texans in Houston. Green Bay's Super Bowl odds did improve, however, from just under 4% to 4.8%. That percentage, according to Oh, is not a good value at +1100, 8.3% odds.
Speaking of the Buccaneers, Tampa Bay is now a good value to win Super Bowl LV after defeating the Raiders on Sunday and with the upcoming signing of former All-Pro receiver Antonio Brown. Tamps Bay is now at 11.4% and +850, 10.5% odds. Tom Brady's former team, the Patriots, are not in a good spot after losing to the 49ers on Sunday to drop to 2-4 on the season. New England's AFC East chances fell from 35% to just 11% and their playoff percentage dropped from 50.6% to just 20%. The Patriots' odds fell from +3500 (2.8%) to +5000 (2%), and at just 0.2% in sims, the Patriots are not a good value pick at this point in their season.
Here's a look at each team's current Super Bowl odds according to William Hill Sportsbook (and how that translates to % chance), as well as the percent of time they win the big game in SportsLine's simulations.
|Super Bowl odds||Win Super Bowl simulation %|
Kansas City Chiefs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Green Bay Packers
New Orleans Saints
|Los Angeles Rams||+2000 (4.8%)||3.33%|
|Arizona Cardinals||+2000 (4.8%)||0.80%|
|San Francisco 49ers||+2500 (3.8%)||2.13%|
|New England Patriots||+5000 (2%)||0.22%|
Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers
Washington Football Team
|Denver Broncos||+25000 (0.4%)||0.00%|
New York Giants
New York Jets