Texans vs. Chargers odds: 2019 NFL picks, Week 3 predictions from advanced computer model

Two AFC teams with lofty aspirations square off on Sunday when the Los Angeles Chargers host the Houston Texans in a 4:25 p.m. ET showdown. The Texans are coming off a hard-fought divisional victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, while the Chargers suffered a surprising setback against the Detroit Lions last week. The defending AFC South champions are 0-6 against the spread in their last six games against the Chargers, while Los Angeles enters Sunday's matchup with a stellar 10-3 record in its last 13 games at home. Los Angeles is a three-point favorite in the latest Texans vs. Chargers odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 49. Before you make any Chargers vs. Texans picks of your own, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 3 of the 2019 NFL season on a strong 17-10 run. It's also on a 79-53 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Additionally, it nailed the Seahawks (+4) covering against the Steelers and the Patriots (-18) covering a massive spread against the Dolphins with room to spare in Week 2. The model ranked inside the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third straight year on straight-up NFL picks and beat over 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has simulated Chargers vs. Texans 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see it at SportsLine.

The model has taken into account that Los Angeles features one of the most potent offenses in the league. The Chargers are led by quarterback Philip Rivers, who's thrown for over 55,000 yards thus far in his career. In his first home game of the season, Rivers stuffed the stat sheet, throwing for 333 yards and three touchdowns. 

The Chargers' offense has also been able to run the ball effectively early this season because of the play of Austin Ekeler, a third-year pro out of Western Colorado. In fact, Ekeler has arguably been Los Angeles' biggest weapon on offense, having scored four touchdowns through the first two games. Ekeler is expected to be featured early and often again on Sunday against a Texans' defense that allowed Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray to average over seven yards per carry in Week 1. 

Meanwhile, the Texans bounced back after a tough loss on the road. They dodged a bullet, finishing off Jacksonville 13-12. They nearly lost outright, but Jacksonville failed to convert a go-ahead two-point conversion. Running back Carlos Hyde is No. 7 in rushing yards with 173. His 5.8 yards per carry is also seventh.

So who wins Chargers vs. Texans? And which side of the spread is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the computer model that has crushed its NFL picks. 

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