The Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans play the rubber match of their season series when the teams face off in an AFC Wild Card game on Saturday at 4:35 p.m. ET. The Colts (10-6) won the clash of AFC South rivals, 24-21 on Dec. 9 in Houston, while the Texans (11-5) won in Indy, 37-34 in overtime on Sept. 30. The winner of Game 3 advances in the 2019 NFL Playoffs, while the loser's season is finished. In the most-recent Texans vs. Colts odds as kickoff approaches, Houston is favored by 1.5 points, while the over-under is 48.5, the highest number on the 2019 Wild Card schedule. Each team comes into Saturday with reason to believe, so before backing either side with your own Texans vs. Colts picks and NFL Playoff predictions, you'll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has locked in.
SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 straight-up last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks this season, entering the wild-card round on a blistering 16-6 run. For the season, it is now 30-15 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-49. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has simulated Colts vs. Texans 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning toward the over, and it also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The computer is well aware that Houston features a high-flying offense that can hurt opponents in a multitude of ways. The Texans are led by quarterback Deshaun Watson, who is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. Watson completed over 68 percent of his passes this season for 4,165 yards, 26 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. The second-year signal caller can also take over a game with his legs. In fact, Watson finished the season with 551 rushing yards and has scored three rushing touchdowns in his last two games.
Watson's top receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, is also a big-time playmaker who recorded over 1,500 yards receiving for the second time in his career. And Hopkins, who finished the season with 11 touchdown catches, has had major success against the Colts already this season, recording 14 receptions for 205 yards and two touchdowns. Receiver Keke Coutee is back for the first time since Week 12, giving Watson another weapon.
But just because the Texans have been dominant on offense and hold home-field advantage doesn't mean they'll cover the AFC Wild Card spread on Saturday.
The model also knows that after going 4-12 last season without quarterback Andrew Luck, the team bounced back with 10 wins. Luck returned to his old form, throwing for 4,593 yards and 39 touchdowns. His top targets were on point, as wide receiver T.Y. Hilton amassed 1,270 yards and six touchdowns, while new tight end Eric Ebron had 750 yards and 13 touchdowns, the second-most of anyone in the league.
Indy's running game has done its part as well, led by Marlon Mack (908 yards, nine touchdowns, 4.7 yards per carry). In all, Indy's offense ranks fifth in scoring at 27.1 points per game and is seventh in yards. The Colts are 5-3 against the spread on the road this season and 6-0 against teams like Houston that are allowing fewer than 21 points per game.
Indy's defense had no players named to the Pro Bowl, but the unit ranks 10th in scoring (21.5 points per game) and 11th in yards allowed.
Who wins Colts vs. Texans? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors over the past two seasons.
