Texans vs. Colts odds, line: Thursday Night Football picks, predictions from top simulation on 92-63 run
SportsLine's advanced computer model simulated Thursday's Colts vs. Texans game 10,000 times.
The Indianapolis Colts look to continue their dominance in the all-time series when they visit the Houston Texans for Thursday Night Football. Indianapolis (6-4) has won the last two meetings, including at home in Week 7, to improve to 27-8 against Houston. However, Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson has shined in primetime games during his career, throwing for 16 touchdowns and running for three more while being picked off only twice en route to a 121 rating in six contests. Kickoff for this AFC South blockbuster is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Houston is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Texans vs. Colts odds, holding steady from the opener, while the over-under for total points scored is 46.5. Before you make your Thursday Night Football predictions for the 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff from NRG Stadium, you should read the latest Colts vs. Texans picks from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 12 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 30-20 run that dates back to last season.
It's also on an incredible 92-63 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season, The model has ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch the past three years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has broken down Colts vs. Texans. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it's also generated an against-the-spread pick that is hitting in more than 50 percent of simulations. Head to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are the NFL betting lines and trends for Colts vs. Texans:
The model knows Houston's offensive line had issues protecting Watson in a 41-7 loss on Sunday, as the Ravens had six sacks and batted down six passes, but the Colts have only 20 sacks this season. Watson has thrown for 2,601 yards and 18 touchdowns and completes 69.5 percent of his passes. He has an elite wideout in Deandre Hopkins (75 receptions, 745 yards) and strong tight ends in Darren Fells and Jordan Akins, who each have 263 yards and have combined for eight touchdowns. Hopkins and Kenny Stills combined for 13 catches for 211 yards against the Colts last month.
Houston is a perfect 2-0 against the spread this season versus teams like the Colts that allow fewer than 21 points per game. The Under has hit in the Texans' last three contests.
But just because Houston has a high-powered offense doesn't mean it will cover the Texans vs. Colts spread on Thursday Night Football.
Indianapolis quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who returned to action on Sunday after missing one game with a knee injury, is hoping to continue his success against the Texans. The 26-year-old from NC State has won all four of his career starts versus Houston, accounting for eight touchdowns without throwing an interception for a 107.2 rating.
Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (calf) is active and has excelled in seven career games at Houston, amassing 933 receiving yards, including at least 175 in his last two contests, and seven touchdown catches. Tight end Eric Ebron also had enjoyed success against the Texans, as he has a TD in four straight matchups, including last year's AFC wild-card game. The Colts, who are perfect against the spread in six divisional games this season, racked up 264 yards on the ground last week, their highest total since 2004.
So who wins Colts vs. Texans on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread can you bank on in more than 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Colts vs. Texans spread you should be all over on Thursday, all from the model that has returned over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.
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