If the Minnesota Vikings can beat the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving, they'll advance to 9-2, the best mark of the conference outside of the NFL-leading Philadelphia Eagles, and they'll do so with their Opening Day quarterback and star rookie running back on Injured Reserve.
That's in large part due to the emergence of journeyman signal-caller Case Keenum, whose success has not only lessened the blow of another Sam Bradford injury but postponed the triumphant return of Teddy Bridgewater. Undefeated in his last six starts, the veteran is fresh off logging a 100.8 passer rating against the NFC West-leading Los Angeles Rams and may very well be the safest option for the Vikings under center beyond 2017.
And yet the real X-factor of Minnesota's improbable surge to the throne of the NFC North, a feat that seemed much more feasible when Bradford and Dalvin Cook were lighting up the summer, isn't Keenum. It's the wide receiver who's almost single-handedly fueled Keenum's success. The NFL's best kept secret.
Vikings coach Mike Zimmer would never crown one player the champion of a single season, let alone a single game, and there's no denying that Minnesota's vaunted defense is what's most keeping the Vikings afloat -- no, dominant. But to overlook Thielen's production is to overlook the NFL's steadiest, most dangerous offensive weapon this side of Pittsburgh.
Set aside Thielen's story -- the Hollywood journey from Division II Minnesota State University, Mankato, to his hometown Vikings, the move from undrafted practice squad rookie to everyday starter. Besides exploding as a consensus top-10 fantasy wideout, the 27-year-old pass catcher has essentially become Minnesota's offense in the wake of Cook's absence and sporadic showings from speedster Stefon Diggs.
His 916 yards through 10 games are second in the NFL behind only Antonio Brown, the Steelers' perennial 100-ball catcher, and put him on pace for 1,466 yards -- a total that would rank second in Vikings history behind Randy Moss' 1,600-yard 2003 campaign. His 62 receptions are tied for fifth in the NFL, putting him on track for 99 catches, another top-five team record. His 14.8 yards-per-catch average, meanwhile, is the best among the top 20 receivers in terms of total catches made, and he's shown no signs of slowing against well-ranked NFL defenses, going off for 123 yards against the Rams and 166 against the Washington Redskins a week earlier.
Of the 96 times he's been targeted in 2017, according to The Washington Post, Thielen has dropped just two passes.
The numbers aren't the only things speaking for him, either.
Sports Illustrated's Andy Benoit has Thielen as the league's second best route runner, ahead of even Brown.
I've got Thielen No. 2 and Brown No. 3. Right there with you. Love them both. https://t.co/zQGXX6aRmw
— Andy Benoit (@Andy_Benoit) November 22, 2017
Perhaps the wideout's on-field leap is an anomaly, but there are things to suggest otherwise, the first being that Thielen has played -- sometimes without Diggs -- largely with Keenum as his quarterback. That's no disrespect to Keenum, who's managed Minnesota's offense more admirably than anticipated, but if Thielen can put up 900 yards as a Bradford favorite in 2016 and then threaten not only to eclipse but shatter his numbers as a fifth-year breakout with Keenum, Vikings fans might be safe calling him the real deal.
In 2017, at least, no one can deny that. And it might be the biggest reason, outside of the defense, why Minnesota is bound for the postseason.