Thursday Night Football odds: Giants vs. Patriots picks, predictions from proven expert on 18-10 run

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots aim to improve to 12-0 against rookie quarterbacks as they host Daniel Jones and the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football. It's an 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff from Gillette Stadium. Now 2-1 as a starter, the 22-year-old Jones is looking to become the youngest quarterback to beat the Patriots in the Brady-Bill Belichick era. Jones actually has played as well as Brady since taking over for Eli Manning, besting Brady in completion percentage (63.8 to 60.2) and yards per attempt (7.1 to 6.5). Still, bookmakers peg New England as a 17-point favorite in the latest Giants vs. Patriots odds, with the over-under for total points set at 42.5. Before you make any Patriots vs. Giants picks, see the Thursday Night Football predictions from SportsLine's No. 1 NFL expert, Larry Hartstein.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. He went 61-47 on NFL picks last season, and this year he's even hotter.

Entering Week 6, Hartstein is a sizzling 18-10 against the spread this season, a wallet-fattening 64 percent cash rate. Moreover, Hartstein is crushing the Las Vegas SuperContest this season, going 17-8 through five weeks.

Now, Hartstein has analyzed every betting angle for Giants vs. Patriots on Thursday Night Football and locked in another strong against the spread pick. He's sharing it only at SportsLine.

Hartstein knows the Patriots' defense is shaping up as the best of Belichick's illustrious 19-year tenure. New England leads the NFL in 10 defensive categories, including takeaways (12), sacks (24), opponent passer rating (44.0) and points per game allowed (6.8). It's hard to see a Giants team missing several offensive starters excelling in Foxborough against this fearsome unit.

Thanks to that defense and a multi-dimensional offense led by Brady, Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, James White and Sony Michel, the Pats have outscored their opponents by 121 points, the second-biggest margin through five games since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. New England should have ample scoring opportunities against a Giants defense that ranks 30th with 409.4 yards per game allowed.

But just because New England looks like a juggernaut and is playing at home doesn't mean it will cover the Giants vs. Patriots spread on Thursday Night Football.

The Giants averaged 28 points in Jones' first two starts, wins over the Buccaneers and Redskins. And despite the injuries, Jones has plenty of confidence in rookie speedster Darius Slayton and veteran receiver Golden Tate. Slayton has caught nine of 12 targets for 157 yards, averaging a whopping 17.4 yards per catch. Shepard's absence means Golden Tate will dominate snaps in the slot, where he's most effective. Since 2014, Tate leads the NFL with 2,736 yards after the catch.

History and several striking trends also favor the Giants covering. New York has won three of the past four meetings outright, and the G-Men are an eye-popping 8-1 against the spread in their last nine road games. They also have covered five straight games following a double-digit loss at home.

We can tell you Hartstein is leaning under, but his much stronger play is against the spread. He's found a crucial x-factor that has him going big on one side. You can only see it at SportsLine.

Who wins Patriots vs. Giants? And what crucial x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Giants spread to jump on Thursday, all from the seasoned expert who's been crushing his against the spread picks for two years.

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