Thursday Night Football odds, line: Chargers vs. Chiefs picks, best predictions from proven expert who's 11-1 on K.C. games

The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers have lost just five times combined this season. They're the top two teams in the AFC West and if the season ended today, the Chiefs would get a first-round bye, while the Chargers would travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers. With the NFL playoff picture hanging in the balance, the Chiefs and Chargers meet on Thursday Night Football from Arrowhead Stadium. Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET in the first game of the Week 15 NFL schedule. The line has remained relatively constant and sits at Chiefs -3.5. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas expects to be scored, is 54 in the latest Chiefs vs. Chargers odds, down almost a field goal from the opener. Before you make any Chiefs vs. Chargers picks and predictions for Thursday Night Football, see what Vegas legend Micah Roberts has to say.

The longtime former head of Station Casinos sportsbooks, Roberts can spot a bad point spread a mile away. And he has an eerie feel for the Chiefs too. In his past 12 spread picks for or against K.C., Roberts has been right 11 times, including all five times this season. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Roberts has pounced on what he calls a mistake in the Chargers vs. Chiefs spread for "Thursday Night Football." He has locked in a strong against-the-spread pick and is sharing it over at SportsLine. 

Roberts knows that Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (43 touchdowns, 11 interceptions) has been brilliant all year, and last Sunday he joined Dan Marino (1984) and Kurt Warner (1999) as the only quarterbacks in NFL history to reach 4,000 yards and 40 touchdowns in a single season over his first two years in the league. Mahomes picked apart the Chargers in Week 1, throwing for 256 yards and four scores without a pick. 

Even without running back Kareem Hunt, the Chiefs haven't slowed down. Backup Spencer Ware is doubtful with hamstring and shoulder injuries, but Damien Williams scored twice in last week's overtime win against the Ravens. Kansas City has beaten the Chargers nine straight times, covering the past four meetings.

But just because the Chiefs have dominated the series doesn't mean they'll cover the Thursday Night Football spread against the streaking Chargers, who have won nine of 10.

Roberts also knows the Chargers enter as the NFL's most balanced team, ranking fifth in scoring (28.2 points per game) and sixth in points allowed (20.8). Even without running back Melvin Gordon (knee), L.A. has put up 59 points the past two weeks in wins over the Steelers and Bengals. Gordon is looking iffy for Thursday Night Football and his backup, Austin Ekeler is out with a neck stinger and a concussion. Speedy rookie Justin Jackson could captain L.A.'s backfield.

During the team's current three-game win streak, Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has completed an astonishing 78 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and no interceptions. Top wideout Keenan Allen (88 catches, 1,074 yards) has scored in five straight games and has 41 grabs over that span. 

The Chargers have covered four straight road games and already have won at two notoriously difficult venues: Seattle's CenturyLink Field and Pittsburgh's Heinz Field.

We can tell you Roberts is leaning over, but his much stronger play is against the spread. He has identified a hidden x-factor that he says causes one side of the spread to hit hard. You absolutely need to see it before you lock in your own picks. 

Who wins Chargers vs. Chiefs? And what hidden x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on Thursday, all from the Vegas legend on an astonishing 11-1 run picking Chiefs games, and find out.

Our Latest Stories