The Miami Dolphins will hope to be more than competitive against their in-state rivals when they visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday Night Football. Miami lost to the Patriots in the season-opener before falling by a field goal to Buffalo last week. Fans were calling for rookie Tua Tagovailoa, but veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been guiding the offense efficiently and threw for 328 yards in the loss. The defense has been a liability, but it hopes to build confidence in this week's matchup against the Jaguars, who are 1-1 after a loss to Tennessee last week.

Kickoff for Dolphins vs. Jaguars is set for 8:20 p.m. ET at TIAA Bank Field, and Jacksonville will be without star receiver D.J. Chark (chest, back). The Jaguars are three-point favorites in the latest Dolphins vs. Jaguars odds at William Hill, while the over-under for total points scored is 49. Before locking in any Jaguars vs. Dolphins picks or NFL predictions, make sure you see what SportsLine's all-time No. 1 NFL expert, Mike Tierney, has to say

A national sportswriter whose work appears in the New York Times and Los Angeles Times, Tierney has covered the NFL for decades and reported from seven Super Bowls. He prefers to evaluate each game from the underdog's point of view and has used that philosophy to dominate the NFL, going 66-44 against the spread in 2019 and 63-46 in 2018.

Tierney entered the 2020 season with a 282-222 record at SportsLine (2016-19) on all NFL picks, returning $3,704 to $100 players, is 10-3 in his past 13 NFL against-the-spread picks and hit all six of his Week 1 picks. He also has had a sharp eye for the tendencies of both the Dolphins and Jaguars, posting a stunning 19-7 record on against the spread picks for or against Miami and Jacksonville. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Tierney has locked in on Jaguars vs. Dolphins from every angle and released a confident against the spread pick. You can visit SportsLine now to see it. Here are several NFL betting lines from William Hill and trends for Dolphins vs. Jaguars:

  • Dolphins vs. Jaguars spread: Jacksonville -3
  • Dolphins vs. Jaguars over-under: 49
  • Dolphins vs. Jaguars money line: Miami +140, Jacksonville -160
  • MIA: WR DeVante Parker topped 70 yards receiving in six of the last seven games of 2019.
  • JAX: Scored touchdowns on six of seven trips to the red zone this season.

Why the Jaguars can cover

Jacksonville has covered the spread in four straight games against AFC foes, and Minshew could have a game-winning night against a defense that yielded a career day to Buffalo's Josh Allen (417 yards, four TDs) last week. Minshew, a sixth-round pick last season, has completed more than 75 percent of his passes after topping 3,000 yards in 14 games last season.

Jacksonville is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games on grass, and Minshew is getting help from rookies James Robinson and Laviska Shenault. Robinson, an undrafted running back, and Shenault, a second-round receiver, teamed up for 192 total yards in Week 2, and the versatility of Shenault could confound Miami.

K'Lavon Chaisson and Myles Jack have the only sacks for the Jags, but the immobile Fitzpatrick has gone down four times already after being dropped 40 times last season.

Why the Dolphins can cover

Miami is 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games coming off a straight-up loss, and Fitzpatrick led the offense to 410 yards against the Bills. The 37-year-old won't hesitate to throw downfield, and receivers DeVante Parker and Isaiah Ford can make plays. They should find holes in a Jags defense that is allowing 300 passing yards per game after they combined for 12 catches for 129 yards in the Week 2 loss. 

It was tight end Mike Gesicki who made a statement for the Dolphins, who are 4-1 against the spread versus their past five AFC foes. The third-year pro, who caught 51 passes last season, had eight receptions for 130 yards and a touchdown against Buffalo. Miami has struggled to run the ball, but it has capable backs in Jordan Howard, Matt Breida and Myles Gaskin, who leads the team with 86 yards on 16 carries and also has 62 yards on 10 catches.

How to make Dolphins vs. Jaguars picks

Tierney is leaning under on the total, and he's also discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He's sharing it only at SportsLine

Who wins Jaguars vs. Dolphins on Thursday Night Football? And what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Dolphins vs. Jaguars spread you should jump on, all from the NFL expert who's brought in over $3,700 to $100 players, and find out.