Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans look to get back in the saddle when they entertain the Indianapolis Colts on Thursday Night Football at NRG Stadium. Watson endured one of his worst performances of the year in Sunday's 41-7 loss at Baltimore, completing only 62.1 percent of his passes while being sacked a season-high six times. Houston (6-4) recorded its lowest point total of 2019 and was kept off the scoreboard in the opening half for the first time this season. Meanwhile, Indianapolis (6-4) avoided a three-game losing streak on Sunday and rolled past Jacksonville, 33-13, but leading rusher Marlon Mack fractured his right hand and is out indefinitely. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Houston is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Colts vs. Texans odds, while the over-under is 46.5, up 1.5 from its lowest point. Before you make any Texans vs. Colts picks of your own, you need to hear what SportsLine's resident Colts expert, R.J. White, has to say.

The stats guru, whose NFL picks are coveted by fans everywhere, has hit it big in the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, twice in the past four years. In addition, he has had a particularly keen eye for the Colts. In fact, he has hit 23 of his last 33 against-the-spread picks involving Indianapolis. Anyone who has followed him is way up. 

Now, White has locked in on this AFC South showdown and generated another strong against-the-spread pick for Texans vs. Colts on Thursday Night Football. Go to SportsLine to see it.

White knows that Watson had success against the Colts in Houston's 30-23 loss in Week 7. The star quarterback threw for 308 yards and spread the ball around, as DeAndre Hopkins (106) and Kenny Stills (105) finished with over 100 yards receiving. Carlos Hyde has been a capable replacement in the backfield for the injured Lamar Miller (knee), rushing for 769 yards over the first 10 games while averaging a career-best 4.9 per carry.

Houston is fifth in the league in run offense (140.7 yards) and tied for second with 12 running plays of at least 20 yards. The Texans rank 13th in the NFL in run defense (102 yards) and limited Indianapolis to 62 yards on the ground in their first meeting and have allowed only four rushing touchdowns all season. Whitney Mercilus has a team-high four forced fumbles and leads Houston with 5.5 sacks, while fellow linebacker Brennan Scarlett trails him by one after recording three in his last two games.

Even so, Houston is no guarantee to cover the Texans vs. Colts spread on Thursday Night Football.

Indianapolis, which is 10-1 against the spread versus teams with a winning record, proved why it ranks in the top five in the league in rushing last week. The Colts gained 264 yards on the ground, their highest total since 2004, and had two 100-yard rushers in a game for the first time since Oct. 6, 1985. Indianapolis' rushing performance was much-needed since quarterback Jacoby Brissett was back in the lineup after missing just one game with a knee injury. 

Brissett hopes to duplicate his best effort of the season in the previous meeting between the teams. The fourth-year signal-caller from North Carolina State threw for 326 yards and four touchdowns, both career highs, in the Colts' Week 7 triumph over the Texans. Until last week, Indianapolis had a penchant for playing close games, as its first nine contests were decided by seven points or fewer.

White has analyzed this matchup and while we can tell you he's leaning under, he has discovered a crucial x-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back. He's sharing it only at SportsLine. 

Who wins Colts vs. Texans on Thursday Night Football? And what crucial x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Colts vs. Texans spread you should jump on Thursday, all from the NFL expert who's 23-10 in his last 33 picks involving Indianapolis.