The New England Patriots appear to have found their footing and will go for their fifth straight win on Thursday Night Football against the Atlanta Falcons. The Patriots (6-4) blasted the Browns 45-7 on Sunday, and rookie quarterback Mac Jones leads the league's sixth-best scoring offense. New England comes into Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium having won six straight meetings, including a 34-28 comeback victory in Super Bowl LI after the Falcons bolted out to a 28-3 lead. Atlanta (4-5) had won three of four before a humiliating 43-3 loss in Dallas last Sunday. Falcons running back Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) is inactive.

Kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists New England as a 6.5-point road favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Falcons odds. The over-under for total points is set at 47, up a point from the opening line. Before you lock in any Falcons vs. Patriots picks or any other Week 11 NFL predictions, you need to see which side red-hot SportsLine NFL expert Emory Hunt is backing

Hunt is the founder and CEO of Football Gameplan, which has been supplying analysis of all levels of football since 2007, and a former running back at Louisiana-Lafayette. He knows the game from a player's perspective.

In addition, Hunt has been locked in on the tendencies of both of these teams. He is an uncanny 17-4 in his last 21 spread picks involving the Falcons. His success on New England against-the-spread picks is equally impressive, as he is 13-4 on his last 17 picks on the Patriots. Anyone who has followed his advice is way up.

Now, Hunt has broken down Patriots vs. Falcons from every angle and just locked in his expert NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see his TNF picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Falcons vs. Patriots:  

  • Patriots vs. Falcons spread: New England -6.5
  • Patriots vs. Falcons over-under: 47
  • Patriots vs. Falcons money line: New England  -300, Atlanta +240 
  • NE: Patriots are 10-7 against the spread in non-conference games since 2018 
  • ATL: Falcons are 7-4 ATS as home underdogs since 2015
Featured Game | Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots

Why the Patriots can cover

Jones, a first-round pick out of Alabama, has been gaining comfort in the offense by the week, and New England is scoring 27.5 points per game. It has a clear psychological edge, having covered the spread in all six of the previous meetings, winning by an average of 12 points. Jones has 2,333 passing yards and 13 TDs, and receivers Jakobi Meyers (50 catches for 483 yards) and Kendrick Bourne (33 for 520) have gained his trust. Tight end Hunter Henry (31 catches, seven TDs) is a valuable outlet for the young signal-caller.

Rookie fourth-round pick Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for 100 yards against Cleveland to hit that mark for the first time. Plus, the Patriots are 6-4 against the spread this season, and the defense has been one of the league's best. It is allowing the second-fewest points in the NFL (17.7) and is sixth in total yards (328 per game).

Why the Falcons can cover

Atlanta is 5-1 against the spread in non-conference games since the start of last season, and quarterback Matt Ryan has a new weapon in tight end Kyle Pitts to make defenses wary. The first-round pick out of Florida has 417 yards over the past five games and is averaging 15 yards per catch this season.

Dante Fowler (two sacks, two forced fumbles) and Grady Jarrett (one sack) will try to rattle Patriots quarterback Mac Jones, who has thrown seven interceptions and been sacked 19 times. Linebacker Foyesade Oluokun is third in the NFL with 100 tackles and has a sack and an interception. The Falcons are 9-6 against the spread after a loss since the start of last season.

How to make Patriots vs. Falcons picks

For Thursday Night Football, Hunt is leaning over on the point total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. He's sharing what it is, and which side of the Falcons vs. Patriots spread to back, only at SportsLine.

So who wins Falcons vs. Patriots on Thursday Night Football? And what critical X-factor makes one side a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Falcons vs. Patriots spread you should jump on, all from the expert who is 30-8 on picks involving these teams, and find out.