The Tennessee Titans have had the upper hand against the Buffalo Bills in the all-time series, winning 27 of the 44 regular-season meetings. The gap was even wider until recently, as the Bills have won the last three matchups. Tennessee will attempt to tip the scale back in its favor when it hosts Buffalo on Tuesday. Kickoff from Nissan Stadium is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on CBS. Bills running back Zack Moss (toe) and wide receiver John Brown (calf) are inactive. Titans wide receiver AJ Brown is active for the first time since Week 1 after suffering a knee injury.
The Bills, who are coming off a 30-23 victory at Las Vegas in Week 4, never have won four straight in the all-time series. Buffalo is a three-point favorite in the latest Titans vs. Bills odds from William Hill, while the over-under is 52.5 after opening at 54. Before locking in any Bills vs. Titans picks, make sure you see the latest NFL predictions from SportsLine's proven projection model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,300 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It's off to a strong 7-4 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model entered Week 5 on an incredible 103-69 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
- Titans vs. Bills spread: Buffalo -3
- Titans vs. Bills over-under: 52.5 points
- Titans vs. Bills money line: Buffalo -160, Tennessee +140
- BUF: Bills are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as favorites
- TEN: Titans are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games overall
Why the Bills can cover
Throwing the football has been Buffalo's forte through four games, as the team is second in the league in passing offense (316.3 yards). Josh Allen fell 12 yards shy of his fourth straight 300-yard performance in last week's 30-23 win at Las Vegas and added his club-leading third rushing touchdown. The 24-year-old signal-caller, who has thrown 12 TD passes and just one interception, joined Steve Grogan (1976) as the only quarterbacks in NFL history with two scoring tosses and one rushing TD in three of their teams' first four games of a season.
Allen's accuracy has improved dramatically, as he's completed 70.9 percent of his attempts this year after posting a 58.8 percentage in 2019. Of his 148 tosses over the first four games, 105 have been caught by 12 different players, with newcomer Stefon Diggs grabbing 26 for 403 yards and two touchdowns. Buffalo's ground game has yet to find its groove, ranking 28th in the NFL at 93.5 yards per game, but that could change when it faces the league's second-worst run defense (166).
Why the Titans can cover
Neither team is a stranger to tight contests, as six of their seven combined victories have been by seven points or fewer. But Tennessee has the edge in this department, considering it has won its three games by a total of six points. The Titans' last outing was a 31-30 win at Minnesota on Sept. 27 in which two of their top offensive players had their best performances of the season.
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill did not have a touchdown pass but threw for 321 yards, while reigning NFL rushing champion Derrick Henry ran for 119 yards and his first two TDs of the season. Tannehill has accounted for 21 touchdowns in his last seven home games, throwing for 18 while running for three. Henry also has performed well in Music City too, as he has averaged 129.3 yards on the ground while finding the end zone four times over his last four home contests.
How to make Bills vs. Titans picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under the total, as the simulations give Allen a high probability of throwing an interception and also projects that Tannehill will throw for fewer than 200 yards. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick here.
So who wins Bills vs. Titans on Tuesday? And which side of the spread cashes in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Titans spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $7,300 on its NFL picks, and find out.