Today's Top Picks: Best player prop bets for Seahawks-Vikings

Did you wake up this morning in a cold sweat? We've had football nearly every day for the last month, and it's been an all-day affair for each of the last three. Now it's Monday, and you have to wait until the evening to find a game. Making matters worse, after tonight's Monday Night Football game, there isn't another game until Thursday.

It's terrifying.

So let's enjoy tonight's game while we still can. I already gave out a pick for the spread in this game in my weekly NFL picks column, so here I'll focus on some player props I like.

1. Russell Wilson passing yards: Over 264.5

On the season, the Vikings are allowing 244.5 passing yards per game, which ranks 20th in the league. That's not great, and it's also misleading. Like a lot of teams, Minnesota's defense against the pass varies depending on which QB it is facing.

Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz, Matt Stafford, Patrick Mahomes, and Dak Prescott averaged 288.3 yards per game against it. The lesser-tier QBs like Derek Carr, Mitch Trubisky, Daniel Jones, Brandon Allen, and a combination of Case Keenum and Dwayne Haskins averaged 191.8 yards per game against it. Which tier are you putting Russell Wilson on?

Wilson himself is averaging 267 yards per game and will have a performance in line with that again tonight.

2. Tyler Lockett receiving yards: Over 75.5

This is a coordinated play with Russell Wilson. It's only logical that if Wilson is to have a good night throwing the ball, Tyler Lockett will be the Seattle Seahawks beneficiary of that. Minnesota's defense has had a difficult time slowing down opposing receivers this season and has allowed guys like Randall Cobb, Tim Patrick and Michael Gallup to all finish with 76 yards or more this season. Those are complementary receivers. Top guys, like Lockett, have routinely gone over 100 yards in games against Minnesota.

Lockett is averaging 75.5 yards receiving per game but has been slowed down a bit in the last two games, catching four passes for 64 yards on only six targets. Expect the bounce-back performance tonight.

3. Kyle Rudolph touchdown: +240

This is a bit of a punt play because Seattle's defense has been prone to allowing touchdowns to tight ends this season. Zach Ertz, Austin Hooper, Ricky Seals-Jones and Vance McDonald have all found the end zone against it. McDonald did so twice. Minnesota has two tight ends capable of putting up numbers tonight (particularly with Adam Thielen sidelined) between Rudolph and Irv Smith, but Rudolph has always been the red zone target. He has five touchdowns this season to Smith's one and has had three more red-zone targets. 

CBS Sports Writer

Tom Fornelli has been a college football writer at CBS Sports since 2010. During his time at CBS, Tom has proven time and again that he hates your favorite team and thinks your rival is a paragon of football... Full Bio

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