Washington Redskins vs. Kansas City Chiefs odds: Picks from expert who went 29-11 on NFL totals

The Kansas City Chiefs host the Washington Redskins in the final game of Week 4.

The line has already seen plenty of movement. It opened at Chiefs -8, but has since dropped to -7. That means Vegas thinks the Chiefs win by a touchdown.

The Over-Under stands at 48.5, meaning Vegas thinks 48.5 total points will be scored. It's down one from where it opened.

Before you make any bets on Redskins-Chiefs, you'll want to hear what Mike "Top Dog" Tierney has to say.

Tierney went a sizzling 22-9 on NFL over-unders last season. And he is an impressive 7-2 this season, including nailing Unders on both "Sunday Night Football" and "Monday Night Football" last week. He has been money in prime time.

Part of his success: He's full of inside information. He has reported from seven Super Bowls and is a well-known national sportswriter. Anyone who has followed his picks has been well-rewarded.

Tierney knows the dynamic duo of Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill have turned the Chiefs into a threat to score on any snap from any spot on the field. The two have combined for four touchdowns of between 30 and 75 yards. And he knows the over is 4-1 in the Chiefs' past five games.

And SportsLine's advanced projection model believes Hill and Hunt will continue to roll. It's predicting Hunt to have over 100 yards from scrimmage and find the end zone, while Hill will have 75 and a TD.

The Chiefs are third in yards per game with almost 400, and the Redskins are eighth in the same category at 373.

But that doesn't mean "Monday Night Football" goes Over. The Chiefs' No. 28 defensive rating is misleading. Opponents have been forced to play catch-up and throw heavily. Tom Brady threw it 36 times, Carson Wentz had 46 attempts and Philip Rivers had 40 last week. More tellingly, the Chiefs' yards-per-play yield is tied for 13th.

And the Redskins just held a Raiders team that scored 71 points in the first two weeks to only 10 in Week 3.

Tierney is leaning on the Redskins to stay within the spread, but what about the Over-Under, which he has made his name picking?

He knows there's a huge x-factor that ultimately determines whether Redskins-Chiefs on "Monday Night Football" goes Over or Under. And he's sharing it over at SportsLine.

So which side should you back in Redskins-Chiefs on "Monday Night Football?" And does this game go Over or Under? Visit SportsLine now to see what big x-factor sends Redskins-Chiefs Over or Under, and see which side of the total you need to be all over, all from the expert who is blistering hot in total plays.

Our Latest Stories