Week 1 NFL picks: Back Brady and the Pats, plus more of Tom Fornelli's best bets

The NFL season is finally here, which is excellent news for all of us because not only do we get to watch football, but we get to make money while doing so. While it's never easy to win regularly betting on NFL games, it's a bit more difficult in Week One when we don't have a clear picture of what teams will look like, but even so, I have four picks for you that should prove to be winners.

We'll start in New England.

New England Patriots (-6.5) vs. Houston Texans

Time comes for us all, and at some point, it's going to come for Tom Brady. I don't think the first week of the season will be when it happens, though. This line is smaller than it should be, and you should take advantage of it. Brady has been a profitable quarterback to bet on his entire career, and this is a juicy spot. Since the 2009 season, Tom Brady and the Patriots have been favored by seven points or fewer at home 34 times. They are 24-7-3 ATS in those 34 games. Patriots 27, Texans 17

Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills (Under 40.5)

A part of me worries that this is a square play, but it just makes far too much sense. Buffalo's offense was awful last season, and with Nathan Peterman starting, I don't see a scenario in which it's any better this season. Maybe you're more comfortable taking the Ravens -7.5, but that hook is a problem. I'm far more confident in the Under. Ravens 20, Bills 13

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears (Under 47.5)

The Sunday primetime game features two longtime rivals, though it hasn't been much of a rivalry over the last 20 years. First Brett Favre destroyed the hopes of Bears fans, and now it's Aaron Rodgers. While there's a part of me worried that Rodgers decides to show off for the national audience, the Bears were a top 10 defense last season and they just added Khalil Mack. Expect defense to win out Sunday night. Packers 27, Bears 17

Bonus Pick

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Another game between division rivals to start the season. The Saints are 9.5-point favorites and the total is set at 49.5. If you'd like to see my pick for this game -- and plenty of others -- head on over to my Sportsline page.

CBS Sports Writer

Tom Fornelli has been a college football writer at CBS Sports since 2010. During his time at CBS, Tom has proven time and again that he hates your favorite team and thinks your rival is a paragon of football... Full Bio

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