Last week, the Buccaneers were five-point home underdogs with a closing total of 50.5. The Saints easily covered, but it took a 55-yard pick-six in the fourth quarter to push the total over the number by a half-point. That result extended two Bucs trends that have been highly profitable for bettors this year.
First, the Bucs are the worst team in the league against the spread, going just 2-8 against the closing number. The last time they beat the spread was all the way back in Week 4 when they threw 55 on the Rams, meaning they've failed to cover six straight times since then. Anybody that has faded the Bucs since Week 4 has cashed in repeatedly.
Their better streak comes on the total, where the over is 8-2 on the season and the total has gone over eight straight times. It makes sense; the Bucs have allowed the most points in the league while ranking sixth in points scored. That's surely a recipe for plenty of totals going over, but to have an unbroken streak like this is something else.
This could be the week both streaks are snapped, or neither. The Bucs head to Atlanta to face a Falcons team that has come to life in the two games since their bye week, holding the Saints to nine points and the Panthers to three. Those two outright wins have made the Falcons, who at one point had the worst ATS record in the league at 1-6, three straight covers and four straight games under the closing total.
The market early in the week seems to be favoring the Falcons streaks continuing, as they've moved from three points favorites to 4.5-point favorites in many places, with the total dipping from 54.5 to 51.5. I'd expect to see plenty of single-game parlays that way by Sunday as well.
Who'll win MVP? And how far will Tua fall in the draft? Brady Quinn and Ryan Wilson join Will Brinson to break down those questions and more on the Pick Six Podcast. Listen below and be sure to subscribe to get daily NFL goodness fired into your eardrums.
Each week, I break down what you need to know about each game from a betting angle before you lock in your picks. I'll talk about big line moves, teasers and parlays to consider and more.
If you want to know which sides I like, you can find that info at the SportsLine link below, where all my rated plays appear during the season along with my five SuperContest picks each week and plenty of great analysis from a fantastic collection of experts. You can also check out where all our CBS Sports staff lands on each game each week right here.
My picks
Over at SportsLine, I'll be posting my picks for Week 12 throughout the week. Join now and use promo code WHITE for $1 on your first month and you can get mine and every SportsLine expert's picks throughout the year, as well as my SuperContest picks each Saturday.
Big line moves (lookaheads)
Panthers at Saints -9.5 (was NO -6.5)
Colts at Texans -3.5 (was HOU -6)
Lions -3.5 at Redskins (was DET -1.5)
Lookaheads are lines that are posted for matchups before the previous week's games. Analyzing the biggest movers is beneficial for smart bettors, who have a chance to examine those moves to determine whether there's value in playing against a potential overreaction. Last week, following the big moves went 3-1.
The Panthers looking terrible at home against the Falcons coupled by a nice bounceback from the Saints after their loss to those same Falcons pushed this Panthers-Saints line three points higher. Kyle Allen was terrible in that game, one of four quarterbacks to throw four interceptions in Week 11. There had been just five games where a team had thrown at least four interceptions all year before last week.
The Texans' blowout loss at the hands of the Ravens combined with the Colts finally winning a game by more than one score has swung the Thursday night line down 2.5 points. I don't know that I'd make any major adjustments to the Texans' power rating off that game; the Ravens might just be really hard to defend, and it's not like Jacoby Brissett will be able to replicate Lamar Jackson's dynamic performance.
Washington dropping yet another game, this time in a rare spot they were favored, has the market quitting on them completely, with the public on the Lions to a massive degree, even at the inflated number (more on that below). Last week's game happened to be the first Washington total to go over in seven games as well, so playing Under 42.5 could certainly provide value in that matchup. One other note: the Lions have been having close to the run of futility of the Bucs, going 0-5 ATS in their last five games. Something, as they say, has to give.
Who should you back against the spread, on the money line and the total in every Week 12 NFL game? And which Super Bowl contender goes down? Visit SportsLine to see their Week 12 NFL cheat sheet, all from the model that is up almost $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.
Where DVOA disagrees with line
Colts at Texans -3.5
Panthers at Saints -9.5
Ravens -3 at Rams
Part of my research each week is calculating the DVOA as tracked by Football Outsiders and seeing where the metric has a significant disagreement with the market. For this section, I employ the weighted DVOA statistic, which puts more emphasis on more recent games.
Using the Colts calculation that only accounts for games featuring Jacoby Brissett, the Colts are deemed the far superior team to the Texans in this metric, to the point where you'd make them about 3.5-point favorites on a neutral field. In Houston, that means we'd be look at around a pick 'em or Colts -1 if we play this DVOA disagreement.
DVOA isn't buying into the Panthers at all, as they rank 27th in the league in the weighted metric. Using the Saints calculation that only involves games with Drew Brees, the metric thinks the line should be about three points higher. I've omitted the Lions-Redskins game from this section because there's no Jeff Driskel-specific DVOA number, but with Washington's DVOA being so poor, all three of the games from our line moves section show up here, with DVOA buying into those moves and saying they don't go far enough.
Finally, we come to the Monday night game, where the Ravens' ascension to No. 2 in DVOA makes them a great buy price at the -3 number. Weighted DVOA pegs that to be three points too low when granting the Rams a 1.5-point home field advantage, as I do.
Fading the public
Lions -3.5 at Redskins
Seahawks +1.5 at Eagles
Ravens -3 at Rams
If 80% of the action or more is on one side of a line, you want to be thinking about taking the other side, a practice commonly known as fading the public. If the consensus thinks it has a game figured out, that should be flashing warning signs for you. All betting trends data is from Sports Insights as of Tuesday night.
The Lions make another appearance here, with upwards of 90% of the tickets coming in on them as people line up to the window to fade Washington. The public is also fading a banged up Eagles team, with 84% of the tickets on a Seahawks team that is 5-1 straight up after a bye week over the last six years. And it's no surprise people are rushing to back the Ravens against a Rams team that sputtered in primetime last week, with 85% of the tickets on Baltimore there.
One more to keep an eye on: the Falcons, who are taking 76% of their tickets in the matchup with the Bucs mentioned in our lede.
Underdog parlay of the week
Bengals +240 vs. Steelers
Redskins +160 vs. Lions
This week, we're doing something crazy and taking probably the worst two teams in the league. How could you possibly trust these teams, which are a combined 1-19, to win in the same week? I'll concede that it's unlikely to happen, but not as unlikely as the +784 parlay odds would have you believe. This is more about their opponents than anything else.
The Steelers were brutalized in their Thursday night loss to the Browns and limp into a road matchup against an 0-10 team everyone expects them to beat. But Mason Rudolph has not looked great on offense even before losing several of his best skill players, so how can we be certain the Steelers offense will run away with a win on the road against a team desperate for its first win?
In the other game, we talked about the reasons Washington might be a good play against the spread, but there's value to be had on the moneyline as well. This is Jeff Driskel, a quarterback who's one career win in seven starts came in a game where he completed 42 percent of his passes for 130 yards, as a road favorite. The Lions lost their last road game to the woeful Bears 20-13, and that was with their defense allowing just 226 yards of offense. Certainly there's a chance Washington can get a win here.
Only two underdogs won outright last week, making it tough to cash. Will Week 12 be better to the 'dogs?
Want a free shot to win $1,000,000 just for picking winners? How about 17 of 'em? Join Parlay Pick'em now to play every week for a million-dollar jackpot and our $10K season prize.
Teaser of the week
Patriots -0.5 vs. Cowboys
Seahawks +7.5 at Eagles
The Patriots are an easy call, as even though the Cowboys have looked excellent offensively this season, it's hard to see Jason Garrett going to Foxborough and beating Bill Belichick. We're also going to play the line move with the Seahawks to move that line up over a touchdown, as Seattle is a team that doesn't get blown out very often and Philly's injury report is likely to be packed this week, while their opponents are fresh off a bye.
The teaser of the week is just 5-6 this year after a 12-5 run in 2018, and we missed last week by playing the Panthers against a rejuvenated Falcons team. However, if you follow my Friday exotics posts, you'll have cashed easily by swapping out the Panthers for the Cowboys.
