Week 14 NFL odds, picks: Giants beat Mark Sanchez-led Redskins and more of Jason La Canfora's best bets

Gotta admit, this was a lot more fun back when I was 16-8. And then I went and compounded my rut by winning only one game last week. Yeah, this is pretty ugly these days. Have had a tougher time picking ATS this year than any I can recall, but, alas, the show must go on.

So, yeah, buyer beware on these best bets, but here is what I like this week:

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Giants (-3.5) at Redskins

The Skins are at home, but they have no home-field advantage to speak of and that place will be like a morgue with Washington's season effectively over and Alex Smith still in the hospital and Mark Sanchez starting this game. The Giants should be able to control the clock and turn over Sanchez at least 2-3 times. Josh Norman vs. Odell Beckham Jr. will bring out the best in the WR. I have a feeling by next week the Skins will be seeing a lot of huge spreads against them, but there is still value here now.

Packers (-6) vs. Falcons

Atlanta on the road is usually a problem to begin with. The Falcons have rolled over and died. The Packers did last week, too, but Aaron Rodgers will be out to prove something with Mike McCarthy fired. He can't possibly look as disinterested as he did a week ago, and Green Bay can't lose to another .250 winning percentage team at Lambeau two weeks in a row. The Falcons have become everybody's homecoming team and they got absolutely abused by Baltimore on both sides of the line of scrimmage last week.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 14? And which playoff contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Bears (+3) vs. Rams

The Rams have not had to travel much at all this season or deal with the elements. Mitchell Trubisky will be back for the Bears and they will shake off a brutal loss from a week ago and make a playoff statement of sorts here. Jared Goff will face more pocket pressure than he has all season and Vic Fangio will improve his head-coaching odds by slowing down Sean McVay's offense. The Rams are due for a letdown of sorts.

Listen to Pete Prisco, Will Brinson and R.J. White break down all their Week 14 picks against the spread on the Pick Six Podcast.

CBS Sports Insider

Before joining CBS Sports, Jason La Canfora was the Washington Redskins beat writer for The Washington Post for six years and served as NFL Network's insider. The Baltimore native can be seen every Sunday... Full Bio

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