Getty Images

Another decent enough week last weekend. I can live with going 2-1. But shame on me for believing that was the week that Washington's defense would step up. I totally whiffed on that game and it's the first hopeless beat of the season for me as the Bills trashed WFT.

I'm going to stick with what worked so well for me so far this season and try to really drill down on just a couple of games. And this week I'm focused on teams that I believe are better than their records and teams who have sufficient superior talent to go ahead and cover against a reeling opponent. Specifically, this is an era where you have to score to win by large and there are some offenses in this league that just seemed ill-equipped to do it. There are certain offenses that lack explosion and the ability to really get the ball downfield.

That tends to be a problem and in the two games I'm focused on there is a vast disparity between the quick-strike ability of the favorite and the offensive slog of the underdog.

Chiefs - 7 at Eagles

Latest Odds: Philadelphia Eagles +7

Yes this is a different spot for this Chiefs than they're used to. At least the Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes Chiefs. However I believe it will bring out the best in them and there will be a sense of urgency to win this game. There's a huge discrepancy in the degree of acumen experience between these coaching staffs and there is a massive gap at quarterback as well.

Yes I have serious reservations about the Chiefs defense but I do not believe the Eagles will be that equipped to exploit it. The Eagles will have to run the heck out of the football to have any chance of really moving the ball and that's not going to be enough to keep Pace with Mahomes. Kansas City will find some joy downfield and I can't imagine that the cheetah is locked down for a third straight week. Reid pulls out all the stops here and Kansas City gets a comfortable victory to flex its muscles again.

Which picks can you make with confidence this week, and which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $7,900.

Packers -6.5 vs. Steelers

Latest Odds: Green Bay Packers -6

This very much appears to be two teams headed in opposite directions as well. Aaron Rodgers is getting back in peak form and yes I'm a little troubled by the situation on the offensive line, in particular left tackle, but I also don't think TJ Watt will be truly 100 percent for this game. The Steelers defense is lacking in several ways as well with Devin Bush struggling right now.

The Steelers also lack a true corner who can play in the slot and the Packers offense can do a lot of damage in that regard. Green Bay can control the clock with the run game if Pittsburgh does play zone and the Steelers right now on offense have no semblance of confidence or belief. The offensive line is getting overwhelmed, Ben Roethlisberger cannot move and they cannot run the football. I just don't think in this setting they can take advantage of some of the Packers' weaknesses. If the Steelers have to play from behind, as I suspect they might, this could really get out of hand.