Week 6 NFL picks: Why you should trust Kirk Cousins and Vikings at home vs. Eagles plus more best bets

There are people who are paid a lot of money to study the NFL, its results, its trends, and the way people perceive all of it. These people are then tasked with the responsibility of creating point spreads and totals that will draw equal action on both sides to try to ensure that the house that pays them makes a lot more money than it pays out. In other words, it's only a matter of time before you lose.

Last week was the time for me. After a 9-3 start to the NFL season, the oddsmakers caught up to me last week. I went 0-3 to drop to 9-6 on the season. I knew it'd come eventually, however, so I'm not even the least bit worried heading into another week of NFL action.

It's their job to beat us, and that only makes it more rewarding to beat them.

1. Vikings -3 vs. Eagles

I love taking the Vikings at home. Minnesota has gone 25-10-1 ATS at home since the 2015 season. As a home favorite, it's 20-8-1 ATS. I expect those trends to continue against the Eagles. Minnesota's defense is still one of the best in the NFL, and after appeasing both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs last week, the Vikings can get back to doing what they do best: letting Dalvin Cook cook, and letting the defense make life miserable on its opponent. Oh, and maybe the Vikings learned a lesson about how valuable the play-action pass is last week too. It's going to be a long afternoon for Carson Wentz and company. 

Prediction: Vikings 27, Eagles 21

2. Bengals +11.5 at Ravens

Nobody who has seen the Bengals play this season is excited about betting on the Bengals. Their offensive line isn't good, they're thin at the receiver position, and they've yet to win a game. But this spread is just too large. The Ravens aren't worthy of being this massive a favorite over the Bengals. Baltimore's defense gave up 40 points to the Browns two weeks ago, and let the Steelers put up 23 points last week despite Mason Rudolph leaving the game. Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, 4-1 ATS the last five years in Baltimore, and the underdog is 8-2 ATS over the last 10 meetings in this division rivalry. Take the Bengals and the points. 

Prediction: Ravens 27, Bengals 23

3. Jaguars -1 vs. Saints

I saw a stat that the Saints haven't failed to cover a spread during the month of October since 2015. That's an amazing stat. It's also a meaningless one. Yes, the Saints have played well without Drew Brees, and their defense is better than anybody wants to give it credit for. Still, they're on the road here against a Jacksonville defense that is pretty good itself and can get pressure on the quarterback. From college to the pros, Teddy Bridgewater has never done well when forced to move around in the pocket. I see him having to do so against this Jaguars team on Sunday, and I think the Saints head back to the Bayou with a loss. 

Prediction: Jaguars 21, Saints 17


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CBS Sports Writer

Tom Fornelli has been a college football writer at CBS Sports since 2010. During his time at CBS, Tom has proven time and again that he hates your favorite team and thinks your rival is a paragon of football... Full Bio

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