What if the 2019 NFL Draft had an NBA-style lottery? The Jaguars take Kyler Murray at No. 1 and more redraft results

The NBA Draft Lottery went down on Tuesday night and the results were ... predictably depressing if you were a Knicks fan -- and a must-watch spectacle for everyone else. The beauty of the lottery is that even the truly terrible aren't guaranteed the top pick. That's how the Knicks and their NBA-worst 17 wins ended up with the third-overall selection. New York, Cleveland and Phoenix, based on records, each had a 14 percent chance to land the top selection. When it was over, the New Orleans Pelicans found themselves in the top spot despite having just a six percent chance of getting there.

You can read about all the details from the night, but it got us to thinking: How would the 2019 NFL Draft have unfolded with a lottery system that mirrored the results from Tuesday's NBA draw?

Before we get to that here's a quick refresher of the NBA's lottery rules:

[T]he NBA Draft Lottery will ensure that the team with the worst record will receive no worse than the fifth pick. ... [and] the teams with the three worst regular-season records will each have a 14 percent chance of winning the lottery. The odds for the remaining participants in the 14-team lottery reduce gradually after the top three. ... After drawings are conducted for the first four picks of the NBA Draft, the other lottery teams will continue to pick in inverse order of their regular-season record.

Below we'll list the results of the 2019 NFL Draft based on the Tuesday night's NBA lottery results. So, for instance, the Cardinals, like the Knicks, will have the third-overall pick in the draft. The Jaguars, meanwhile, who originally had the No. 7 pick -- like the Pelicans -- will select first. And so on. And after the four-team lottery, the remaining picks will be ordered by record. Also note: Because the NBA's lottery is only 14 teams deep, we'll keep this NFL lottery redraft to 14 teams. And if the original player drafted by a team is still on the board, that team will draft that player here (So, for example, if Clelin Ferrell is available when the Raiders select seventh, they'll draft him there.)

Alright, let's get to it:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars

Lottery pick: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
Original pick: Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky (No. 7)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 6 percent

Josh Allen was a fantastic selection, especially since he was expected to be off the board no later than No. 4 overall. But even if the Jaguars take Quinnen Williams or Nick Bosa here, are they a clearly better team than the 2018 squad? Put another way: Nick Foles isn't the long-term answer but Kyler Murray could be, and if you have a franchise quarterback staring you in the face, you take him, particularly if Plan B involves signing Foles to a four-year, $88 million deal that includes more than $50 million in guarantees.

2. Buffalo Bills

Lottery pick: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
Original pick: Ed Oliver, DT, Houston (No. 9)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 6 percent

The Bills originally drafted Oliver ninth overall and were ecstatic to find him there. Williams is bigger, stronger, more consistent and more disruptive than Oliver. Both were fantastic college players and Oliver had a longer track record of success -- Williams played behind Da'Ron Payne in 2017 and didn't even know if he'd be a starter heading into the 2018 campaign -- but Williams was unblockable last season.

3. Arizona Cardinals

Lottery pick: Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
Original pick: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma (No. 1)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 14 percent

Before Kyler Murray declared for the draft, the expectation was that the Cards would take Bosa; he was widely considered the draft's best player, he played a critically important position, and he'd be able contribute from Day 1. If nothing else, there would be a lot less pressure on general manager Steve Keim to have immediate success. As it stands, the Cardinals traded up in 2018 to take Josh Rosen 10th overall and then drafted Murray first overall a few weeks ago. Rosen was traded to the Dolphins and Keim hopes he got this right. 

4. Cincinnati Bengals

Lottery pick: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa
Original pick: Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama (No. 11)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 2 percent

Yes, the Bengals re-signed Tyler Eifert, but who knows if he'll ever return to the form that made him one of the league's most underrated tight ends.  The team also drafted Drew Sample in the second round, which surprised us -- and just about everyone else who follows the draft. Who knows, maybe Sample will have a fine career (he was underutilized at the University of Washington), but if the idea is to get Andy Dalton and this offense back on track, finding him a playmaking security blanket is a great place to start. Hockenson, who went No. 8 to the Lions in the actual draft, has drawn comparisons to Travis Kelce. If he's even 70 percent of that he's worth the fourth-overall pick here.

5. San Francisco 49ers

Lottery pick: Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky
Original pick: Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State (No. 2)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 14 percent

Late in the 2018 college football season, 49ers fans would have been quite happy to land Allen with the No. 2 pick. Before Kyler Murray picked football over baseball, the feeling was that the Cardinals would take Nick Bosa first overall and the 49ers, who had a need at pass rusher despite using three of their previous four first-rounders on defensive linemen, could be a good fit for the Kentucky star. Allen might be a better athlete than Bosa, though Bosa's pedigree (his brother and his dad were also first-round picks) suggests he'll be very good in the NFL.

6. New York Jets

Lottery pick: Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State
Original pick: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama (No. 3)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 14 percent

After trading former first-rounder Darron Lee, we'd love to draft Devin White here, but the Jets have a lot of money tied up in C.J. Mosley and Avery Williamson. Instead, we're taking one of the most underrated pass rushers in this draft class. New York drafted Jachai Polite in Round 3 but Burns is more explosive, more consistent, and doesn't come with any off-field concerns. 

7. Oakland Raiders

Lottery pick: Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, Clemson
Original pick: Clelin Ferrell, EDGE, Clemson (No. 4)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 12.5 percent

The Raiders originally took Clelin Ferrell fourth overall and now they get him at No. 7. "He's a foundation player," Raiders GM Mike Mayock told SI.com's Albert Breer. "And even more importantly, he's a three-down defensive end who can stick his hand in the dirt and play on run downs and pass downs. He's not a guy who's going to be a designated pass-rusher. He's in there on every snap. And he's gonna set the tone for us, as far as these young guys are concerned. I couldn't wait to get to that pick."

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Lottery pick: Devin White, LB, LSU
Original pick: Devin White, LB, LSU (No. 5)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 10.5 percent

The Buccaneers drafted Devin White in real life and they get him here too. "Position flexibility is huge for us," coach Bruce Arians said shortly after the team selected White fifth overall. "Obviously, he's a three-down player. He can walk out on the edge and do some things. Then the other thing is, he can cover backs. He can cover the great backs. With all the spread that's coming in now, there's no quarterback that's going to out-run him. I don't worry about Kyler Murray as much now, playing him in November, running around. You want [White] to be the spy, because he can run him down and catch him. Those things that are evolving in the league now, you need speed. You get it in that size and physicality, you've got something really special."

9. New York Giants

Lottery pick: Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
Original pick: Daniel Jones, QB, Duke (No. 6)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 9 percent

We liked Daniel Jones during the pre-draft process. We didn't love him though and we'd love to spare him the pain of getting overdrafted by the Giants. But these are the rules and this is what Dave Gettleman wants. Godspeed, young man. 

10. Detroit Lions

Lottery pick: Ed Oliver, DT, Houston
Original pick: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa (No. 8)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 6 percent

The Lions miss out on T.J. Hockenson thanks to the Bengals swiping him at No. 4, so they go best player on the board with Oliver, who should team with Trey Flowers on a much-improved Lions front four. Though the Lions have some great talent at defensive tackle, Oliver is too good to pass up here.

11. Denver Broncos

Lottery pick: Devin Bush, LB, Michigan
Original pick: Noah Fant, TE, Iowa (No. 20 after trading down)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 3 percent

The Broncos originally selected Fant 20th overall but they have needs also at linebacker, so if they stay put Bush would be a great fit for them as well. Brandon Marshall is now in Oakland and Josey Jewell and Todd Davis are currently atop the depth chart. Bush, who we had as our No. 1 linebacker, is slightly more instinctive and better in pass coverage than Devin White.

12. Green Bay Packers

Lottery pick: Rashan Gary, EDGE, Michigan
Original pick: Rashan Gary, EDGE, Michigan (No. 12)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 1 percent

Gary was a surprise pick here, mostly because his on-field production at Michigan never matched his off-the-charts athleticism. Packers GM Brian Gutekunst had no such concerns and said he was "locked in" on Gary for months.  "Production is just the way you look at it," he said. "He affected the passer, he affected the game. At times he wrecked it," he said.

13. Miami Dolphins

Lottery pick: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
Original pick: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson (No. 13)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 1 percent

We loved the pick during the draft and we love it now. Wilkins doesn't solve the Dolphins' lack of offensive weapons but he does give the team a much-needed anchor on defense.  

14. Atlanta Falcons

Lottery pick: Jonah Williams, OL, Alabama
Original pick: Chris Lindstrom, OL, Boston College (No. 14)
Chance at No. 1 pick: 1 percent

The Falcons drafted two offensive linemen in the first round of the actual draft, and while many thought Lindstrom was a reach at No. 14, landing the top offensive lineman in the class would represent great value if things actually played out this way. Williams would be an immediate upgrade at right tackle or inside at guard.

For completeness, here are the non-lottery picks rounding out the first round (without accounting for draft-day trades):

15. Redskins: QB Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State (original pick: Dwayne Haskins)
16. Panthers: OT Andre Dillard, Washington State (original pick: Brian Burns)
17. Giants: DT Dexter Lawrence, Clemson (original pick: Dexter Lawrence)
18. Vikings: C Garrett Bradbury, NC State (original pick: Garrett Bradbury)
19. Titans: DT Jeffery Simmons, Mississippi State (original pick: Jeffery Simmons)
20. Steelers: TE Noah Fant, Iowa (original pick: Devin Bush at No. 10)
21. Seahawks: EDGE Montez Sweat, Mississippi State (original pick: traded out of first round)
22. Ravens: WR Marquise Brown, Oklahoma (original pick: Marquise Brown at No. 25)
23. Texans: OT Tytus Howard, Alabama State (original pick: Tytus Howard)
24. Raiders: RB Josh Jacobs, Alabama (original pick: Josh Jacobs)
25. Eagles: G Chris Lindstrom, Boston College (original pick: Andre Dillard at No. 22)
26. Colts: DT Jerry Tillery, Notre Dame (original pick: traded out of first round)
27. Raiders: S Johnathan Abram, Alabama (original pick: Johnathan Abram)
28. Chargers: S Darnell Savage, Maryland (original pick: Jerry Tillery)
29. Seahawks:  WR D.K. Metcalf, Ole Miss (original pick: L.J. Collier)
30. Packers: OT Jawaan Taylor, Florida (original pick: Darnell Savage at No. 21)
31. Rams: CB Deandre Baker, Georgia (original pick: traded out of 1st round)
32. Patriots: WR N'Keal Harry, Arizona State (original pick: N'Keal Harry)

CBS Sports Writer

Ryan Wilson has been an NFL writer for CBS Sports since June 2011, and he's covered five Super Bowls in that time. Ryan previously worked at AOL's FanHouse from start to finish, and Football Outsiders... Full Bio

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