Don't want to dig too deep into the Seahawks losses because they have some similar opponents to the Packers. But Seattle has now lost twice to the Rams (9-1), once to the Chargers (7-2), once to the Bears (6-3) and once to the Broncos by three points in a road opener. This is a good Seahawks team with a significant homefield advantage playing on a short week. Love the Seahawks.
Texans (-3) at Redskins
I've had a bad feeling about the Redskins over the last few weeks in terms of predicting their performance. This week I WANT to take them as a three-point home dog against a team on a somewhat fraudulent six-win streak but in the back of my brain I know Deshaun Watson is going to find DeAndre Hopkins early and J.J. Watt is going to terrorize a backup offensive line and the Redskins won't be able to mount a comeback. So I'm fading them here.
Ravens (-3.5) vs. Bengals
It sounds like Lamar Jackson is going to be the starter and maybe that impacts this line? I don't think it does: the Bengals having to prep for the mobile and athletic Jackson on a short week with their defensive coordinator being fired is a recipe for disaster on the defensive side of the ball. I'm willing to gamble on the former Heisman Trophy winner making some plays.
Jaguars (+6) vs. Steelers
The Steelers are a much better team, they are coming off of 10 days rest, they have put the Le'Veon Bell saga behind them and they will have revenge on their mind when they travel to Jacksonville for a game where they can step on the Jaguars' throat. Everyone is on the Steelers, so give me the Jaguars who are desperate and a better team at home. The Steelers are secretly due to drop a horrible game against a bad team.
Falcons (-3) vs. Cowboys
Couldn't ask for a better spot here. The Falcons, who are a great team at home, got embarrassed by the Browns in a game people talked about because the Browns won. Meanwhile, the up-and-down Cowboys went to Philly and won to keep their playoff hopes alive. People will be hammering the Cowboys and I will be taking the Falcons as one of my best bets.
Lions (+4) vs. Panthers
This one terrifies me -- not every home dog has to win or even cover. But this line is inflated after the Lions looked terrible against the Bears and while the Panthers have 10 days to rest, Detroit is a good enough team at home and Carolina is bad enough on the road that I think the Lions can keep this close and storm through the backdoor to cover.
Colts (-2) vs. Titans
Love the Titans. Think they're gonna end up winning the division, but if they don't, I think it might be the Colts who pull it off. They're physical on both sides of the ball and no one is talking about them and how they can run the ball. Tennessee will be emotionally exhausted coming off their Super Bowl against the Patriots and the Colts can take advantage.
Buccaneers (+1) at Giants
Another game where I'm going to play off the previous week's situation. The Giants are coming off an emotional Monday night win across the country while the Bucs became the first team to put up 500 yards and score three points. Give me the Tampa team no one trusts to do something weird with Ryan Fitzpatrick again.
Cardinals (-4) vs. Raiders
Definitely don't like laying points with two terrible teams -- the Cardinals shouldn't be favored over anyone. They're the worst team by DVOA in the entire league (yes worse than Buffalo and Oakland). But I don't think that reflects their recent play. Since Byron Leftwich took over, Josh Rosen's looked better and David Johnson was heavily involved last week. The Cardinals defense is easily the best unit and I don't think Oakland can stop Arizona either.
Chargers (-7) vs. Broncos
This is a big line and the Chargers are a popular favorite team, but the Broncos aren't very good away from home and haven't been very good on offense this year. The Chargers defense is playing better than folks expected without Joey Bosa and Philip Rivers is absolutely locked in right now. Expect a big game from Rivers and Melvin Gordon again.
Eagles (+9) at Saints
Just gonna keep punching myself in the face and betting against the Saints. They've covered their last SEVEN games. But this line is just absurd, even if the Eagles won't be able to slow down Drew Brees. Carson Wentz can take them through the backdoor.
Vikings (+3) at Bears
One of my best bets and if you can get it with decent juice I would suggest going ahead and doing so (I saw -3, -125 which is a bit pricey). The Vikings, I believe, are a better team and should be favored in this game as a result of their defense. It's fine they're not -- Chicago is really good and people have seen them winning lately. But I'll gamble on Mike Zimmer off a bye and a healthy Dalvin Cook.
Chiefs (+3.5) at Rams
Lot of DOGS this week, although not all of them at home. The Chiefs line bumped up after the NFL moved this game from Mexico to Los Angeles. I'm not really worried about where they play; I want the team catching points, because I think it's just an even, high-scoring matchup between two of the most exciting teams in football. Like the over too, but I'd wait for it to get down toward 60 if you're going to take it. It won't climb above 65 or anything.