The Raiders are playing some great football right now and I would love to back them in almost any spot ... except this one. The Chargers have woken from their annual slumber, are getting healthy and are about to rip off some wins. Philip Rivers' team is 9-2 ATS in November games since 2016 and 8-3 SU in those games. Just look at their November numbers. It's ridiculous. Rivers has never lost to the Raiders since the Chargers moved to Los Angeles, either, winning the last four games by a combined total of 51 points. The later in the year against Oakland, the better for Rivers.
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Bengals (+10) vs. Ravens
Boy this is not a fun one to try and roll with. There's just too much situationally here not to take the Bengals, though. Rookie quarterback (Ryan Finley) going against the team who just took down the Patriots on Sunday night? The Ravens should roll here in theory. Cincy is 0-1 ATS as a dog at home -- the only reason it's so low is they were FAVORED in two home games this year. Inconceivable! Rookie quarterbacks making their first start in the second half of the season against John Harbaugh defenses over the last five years have fared well enough (3-2) that I'll back Finley to make a little cover magic here.
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Falcons (+13) at Saints
This all depends on Matt Ryan. If he plays, I can probably roll with the Falcons catching almost two touchdowns here in a Hail Mary type of spot on a lost season with the Falcons coming out of the bye. If Ryan doesn't play, I don't see how you can possibly back the Falcons. The Saints are a vastly superior team, Sean Payton is not afraid to run up the score on Atlanta and New Orleans has covered its last three games as double-digit favorites. If Ryan plays I like the Falcons to come out hot and worst case storm through the backdoor.
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Browns (-2.5) vs. Bills
Everyone will be taking the Bills, who are inexplicably dogs to a Browns team that cannot put it together. But this is a bad matchup for the Bills, who shockingly rank 30th in DVOA against the run this year. If Freddie Kitchens doesn't give Nick Chubb the ball 25+ times he probably should be fired. My biggest issue here is Odell Beckham making enough noise for a squeaky wheel game. Otherwise I love Cleveland in a spot where they will flash their upside. I expect 2-3 more peaks from the Browns this season.
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Giants (-2.5) "at" Jets
The Giants are on a short week but they don't have to travel, with them playing the Jets at MetLife Stadium as the visiting team. I think Daniel Jones can feast in this game, with Leonard Williams gone from the Jets and now prepped for a revenge game. He looked sharp against Dallas and could be a thorn in Sam Darnold's side during this game. Jones, meanwhile, gets a Jets pass D that is 25th against the pass by DVOA. The Jets just gave up 238 passing yards to Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins. The Giants should have beaten the Cowboys but gagged in the red zone -- the Jets are 29th in terms of red zone points allowed. Saquon Barkley bounces back with the Darnold draft narrative looming.
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Titans (+4) vs. Chiefs
Are the Chiefs getting better against the run? They're still 28th in rush defense DVOA but have only given up 71, 118 and 96 yards rushing in the last three weeks respectively. The Broncos were forced to pass and the Vikings lacked creativity, so I'm not sure I should expect the Titans to magically move the ball. But Tennessee is and up and down team and perhaps a bad matchup for the Chiefs in terms of how they operate. Give me the points with a team at home that no one wants to back going against a hobbled Patrick Mahomes (who we think will play).
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Cardinals (+4) at Buccaneers
Another revenge-style game for Bruce Arians, who draws his old employer this week after giving the Seahawks everything they can handle. Love this spot for Kyler Murray, though, as the Buccaneers love to give up passing yards and aren't exceptional at rushing the passer. This game should be a shootout and Kyler should be able to throw the ball a ton and keep it close. I could see a big game from Chris Godwin too, with Patrick Peterson potentially shadowing Mike Evans. I wouldn't be shocked if the Cards won this game outright.
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Bears (-2.5) vs. Lions
What on Earth is this line? The Lions are a better team than the Bears, right? Yes, they are. However, they are also just a bad matchup for Detroit. The Bears have only allowed 20 passes of 20+ yards down the field and 3 passes of 40+ yards down the field. The Lions need the deep passing game to thrive. The Bears are actually starting to run the ball and use David Montgomery. It's working. Imagine that. The Lions are willing to concede plenty of rush yards. Love Montgomery in DFS this week (he's still cheap) and think he has a big game in a surprising grinder of a game.
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Dolphins (+10.5) at Colts
The Dolphins are terrible and we're losing a couple points here off the spread on the lookahead line because of the Fins toppling the Jets last week, but I still think this is a bit much for the Colts to be laying at home. Even though Preston Williams tore his ACL and Mark Walton was suspended, Ryan Fitzpatrick is frisky enough to keep this team within the number against a Brian Hoyer-led Colts team who hasn't played a single game that finished outside of one score the entire season, win or loss.
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Rams (-4) at Steelers
Sean McVay is 2-0 after the bye in his young coaching career, with a +48 point differential in those two spots. I remember fading him laying a bunch of points against the Lions last year on the road and it not working out well, and I'm not going to get burnt this time around. L.A. is probably overrated after beating bad teams before the bye, but the Steelers are willing to give up rushing yards to decent teams and the Rams defense has been better than people think the last three weeks (13 points allowed over that stretch).
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Panthers (+5) at Packers
The Panthers remain in must-win territory every week with the NFC playoff race looking slammed. Kyle Allen is the starter for the rest of the season after Cam Newton was placed on injured reserve, and I think that gives Carolina a little motivation here. It also helps they're playing a sneaky bad defense in the Packers, who have regressed to the mean and are not scared to give up rushing yards. Carolina can EAT in the ground game with Christian McCaffrey running at an MVP level. James Bradbury should play, so I like Carolina to play great defense and keep this game close. If they get down early, the Packers will run away with it.
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Cowboys (-3) vs. Vikings
I want to take the Vikings, because I love the Vikings. But this is a bad spot for them. Adam Thielen is banged up and unlikely to play. The Cowboys are off a short week and coming home. Kirk Cousins in primetime is not good. If Dalvin Cook and the Vikings run game can get going early, Minnesota can pull of this upset. If not, the Cowboys could romp this team and force Cousins into becoming one dimensional while people pile on him for losing a primetime game to a team with a winning record.
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Seahawks (+6) at 49ers
The 49ers are great. But this is a pretty simple equation for me: don't bet against Russell Wilson in prime time. Wilson has played 12 games as a primetime dog, including the playoffs, since he was drafted in 2012. In those games, he is 9-3 against the spread and has only lost by more than a touchdown once in his career in those spots (2015, late November against the Packers in Lambeau, when Aaron Rodgers was burning people to the ground). I'm a little worried the Seahawks defense will be shredded by Kyle Shanahan and Co., but Pete Carroll and Russ are 7-1-1 against the spread as an NFC West dog since 2012 as well.