The Toronto Maple Leafs look to even up their Stanley Cup payoffs series with the Boston Bruins on Thursday. The puck drops for Game 4 at 7 p.m. ET. Boston pounded Toronto in the opening two games, winning each by four goals, but the Leafs responded on the home ice by doubling up the Bruins 4-2 on Monday.

Sportsbooks are calling Game 4 a stalemate, with each team posted at -110. That means you have to risk $110 to win $100 on either side. The over-under, or total number of goals Vegas thinks will be scored, is 6.

Before you make your pick, you need to see what SportsLine expert David Kelly has to say. A Toronto-born hockey analyst with multiple advanced degrees, Kelly is on a mind-blowing NHL run.

He's on a 20-9 streak over two weeks, which includes winning four of his five picks between these two teams. Anyone laying $100 on his picks is up more than $1,000 in just two weeks' time. On the season, his selections have totaled more than $5,500 in profit.

Now, using his proprietary data models and unmatched knowledge of the NHL, Kelly has examined Bruins-Maple Leafs Game 4 from every angle and released a strong money-line pick. He's sharing it over at SportsLine.

We can tell you Kelly is leaning under, but what about the side? His pick is a confident one, and you won't discover his reasons buried in any box score.

Kelly knows Boston simply overpowered Toronto in the opening two games, winning by scores of 5-1 and 7-3. Boston's top line of Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak and Patrice Bergeron combined for a whopping 20 points in those two games.

But the Leafs rebounded in a big way Monday. Patrick Marleau scored two goals while goaltender Frederik Andersen, who was shelled in Boston, made 40 saves to earn a huge victory.

Toronto's defense hunkered down as well, holding that potent Bruins line without a goal. Boston's scores came from defensemen Adam McQuaid and Zdeno Chara.

The Leafs have now won 22 of their past 29 home games, including five straight over the Bruins.

Can the Leafs send the series back to Boston at 2-2? Or will the Bruins bounce back and take a 3-1 lead back home? Visit SportsLine now to get David Kelly's exclusive pick, all from an incomparable NHL expert who's riding a 69 percent win rate and has raked in more than $5,500 on NHL picks.