Lightning vs. Capitals odds, Game 4: Data scientist on 16-5 roll locks in picks for 2018 NHL playoffs

The puck drops Thursday on Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Washington Capitals at 8 p.m. ET. Home team Washington is -120 on the money line, meaning you would need to risk $120 to win $100, while Tampa Bay is +100 (risk $100 to win $100). The over-under, or total number of goals Vegas thinks will be scored, is six.

Before you make your pick, you need to see what SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh has to say. The co-founder of AccuScore, Oh has been money on his picks involving the Caps, nailing 16 of his 21 selections for an astounding 76 percent success rate.

Now, using his specialized sports simulations, projections and advanced statistical analysis, Oh has examined Game 4 from every angle. We can tell you Oh is leaning toward the over and has a strong money-line pick, and you won't discover his reasons buried in any box score. He's sharing it over at SportsLine.

Oh is aware Washington has struggled at home this postseason, posting a 3-4 record at Capital One Arena, including a 4-2 loss on Tuesday. In their two regular-season meetings in Washington, the squads split the games.

Both teams have played effectively this postseason with Washington at 10-5, and Tampa Bay winning nine of its 13 games.

"Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy came up huge on Tuesday with 36 saves," Oh told SportsLine. "But can he repeat the feat on Thursday?"

Alex Ovechkin leads the Caps in playoff goals with 10 while teammate Evgeny Kuznetsov has a team-high 11 assists. Nikita Kucherov is tops on the Lightning with 16 points, including seven goals.

This series could be won on special teams as Washington is the No. 1 postseason team on the power play, having notched 16 goals in 52 man-advantage opportunities for an impressive 30.8 percent. While Tampa Bay also has been strong on the power play with 15 goals for a 30 percent success rate, it's short-handed defense has been lacking, allowing 11 goals in 41 opportunities.

So which team does Oh think will take Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Final? Visit SportsLine now to get Stephen Oh's exclusive selection, all from the data scientist who's 16-5 on picks involving the Caps.

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