NHL: Vancouver Canucks at Vegas Golden Knights

The Dallas Stars, fresh off an upset win over the Vegas Golden Knights in the Western Conference Finals, will aim to keep their momentum alive in Game 1 of the 2020 Stanley Cup Final on Saturday. The puck will drop at 7:30 pm ET at Rogers Place in Edmonton. The Stars are opposed by the Tampa Bay Lightning after they knocked off the New York Islanders to win the Eastern Conference crown.

William Hill lists Tampa Bay as the -160 favorite on the money line in the latest Lightning vs. Stars odds. The over-under for total goals expected is set at five. Before making any Stars vs. Lightning picks, check out the NHL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times, taking into account factors like current form, individual matchups, injuries and short- and long-term trends when making NHL picks. The model seeks the best values on the money line, puck line and total.

Now, the model has set its sights on Lightning vs. Stars. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NHL odds from William Hill and trends for Stars vs. Lightning: 

  • Lightning vs. Stars money line: Lightning -160, Stars +140
  • Lightning vs. Stars puck line: Lightning -1.5
  • Lightning vs. Stars over-under: 5 goals
  • TB: The Lightning are 8-2 in their last 10 games
  • DAL: The Stars have won 5 of the last 6 games

Why you should back the Lightning

Lightning standouts Brayden Point, who returned late in the last series against the Islanders, and Victor Hedman sit in a tie for the second-most goals (nine) during the playoffs. In support, Nikita Kucherov leads the postseason in both assists (20) and points (26), and the Lightning have an offensive attack that can put pressure on any opponent.

Tampa Bay has been the best regular season team in the NHL over the last four seasons but, after a flop in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Lightning were left floundering. In response, Tampa Bay rattled off an NHL-leading 245 goals during the regular season and the Lightning rank in the top four of the Stanley Cup Playoffs in goals (3.11) and goals allowed (2.11) per game. 

Why you should back the Stars

The Stars are playing lights-out hockey, fresh off a substantial upset over a heavily-favored Las Vegas team. Dallas has an impressive offensive attack, including four of the top 14 goal-scorers in the playoffs. Denis Gurianov and Joe Pavelski have scored nine goals each, with Jamie Benn and Alexander Radulov adding eight goals apiece through 21 games.

In opposition, the Lightning are projected to continue operating without Steven Stamkos (lower-body injury) and, while Point did return in the last round, he is still reportedly functioning at less than 100 percent due to his injury. It will be key for Dallas to hold Tampa Bay's offense down in the way it did against Las Vegas, but the Stars have shown the ability to do so at the highest level. 

How to make Lightning vs. Stars picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total with the simulations giving Kucherov and Gurianov the best chance to score a goal for their respective sides. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Stars vs. Lightning? And which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lightning vs. Stars money line to jump on, all from the advanced model that has simulated this matchup 10,000 times, and find out.