Stanley Cup Final 2025: Why Oilers are right to stick with goaltender Stuart Skinner despite Game 3 massacre
Skinner has already shown he can bounce back from bad stretches
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2 min read
Despite allowing five goals on 23 shots in Game 3, Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner will get the start in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final, coach Kris Knoblauch announced. Skinner has had some issues in this series, but sticking with him here is the right call.
Skinner watched the final 16:33 of the Game 3 massacre, a 6-1 win for the Florida Panthers, from the bench after being pulled for allowing his fifth goal. Florida defenseman Aaron Ekblad snuck down the backside and finished off a perfectly executed passing play for a power-play tally.
INSANE PUCK MOVEMENT BY THE CATS, IT'S 5-1 PANTHERS 😱 pic.twitter.com/X4FK6LL6vB
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) June 10, 2025
That one, like most of the goals in that onslaught, was not Skinner's fault. Still, the numbers over the last four outings paint an ugly picture of Skinner's performance. He's posted a .860 save percentage with 2.86 goals allowed above average, per Natural Stat Trick.
That gave Knoblauch some pause on Wednesday when he was asked about his Game 4 starter. Ultimately, Knoblauch chose to stick with Skinner over backup Calvin Pickard. Tempting as it may have been for Knoblauch to go the route of "break glass in case of 2-1 series deficit," Skinner has earned at least one more shot.
For starters, Skinner has simply been better than Pickard in these playoffs, despite some extreme lows.
Data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick
| Stuart Skinner | Calvin Pickard | |
|---|---|---|
Save percentage | .894 | .888 |
GAA | 2.84 | 2.87 |
GSAA | -1.17 | -1.69 |
Neither of those statistical profiles will draw comparisons to Patrick Roy or Dominik Hasek, but Skinner has the slight edge. Given his horrid start to the postseason, it's kind of impressive he's clawed his way back towards league average at all.
After an injury to Pickard forced Skinner back into the starting role, he seized his opportunity. From Game 4 of the second-round series to the end of the Western Conference Final against the Dallas Stars, a seven-game sample size, Skinner was exceptional.
His save percentage was an impeccable .944, and he saved 6.69 goals above average while posting a record of 6-1. Skinner was a key reason why the Oilers made such quick work of the Golden Knights and Stars, two powerhouses in the West.
On top of that, Pickard is hardly a sure thing in this spot. There's a reason Pickard has bounced around throughout his career, appearing in just 175 games and eight playoff games at the age of 33. Consistency has been an issue, and betting on him in what might as well be a must-win game seems even riskier than rolling with Skinner.
If Skinner does get off to a rocky start in Game 4, Knoblauch can afford to use a short leash and put in Pickard. If the roles were reversed, would Knoblauch be able to take the same approach? Skinner would already know Knoblauch has lost some degree of confidence in him before his skates even touched the ice to relieve Pickard, and Skinner would then have to backstop a comeback effort with little error for margin.
Riding with Skinner in Game 4 was the best choice available to Knoblauch. The meltdown in Game 3 was a team effort, and Pickard hasn't been impenetrable, either. Let Skinner try to redeem himself. He's already done once in this postseason.
