Brazil has a lot to prove on Tuesday morning when it faces Mexico in the 2020 Tokyo Olympics men's soccer semifinals at Kashima Stadium. The Brazilians won their first gold medal at Rio 2016, and they are eager to show that they can win the Olympics title without the backing of the home crowd. They also want to avenge a 2-1 loss to El Tri in the final at London 2012 that delayed their first gold-medal ceremony. The winner will face Japan or Spain in Saturday's final. Brazil has more talent but struggled to a 1-0 win against Egypt in Saturday's Tokyo 2020 quarterfinals, while Mexico cruised to a 6-3 victory against South Korea the same day.
Kickoff is set for 4 a.m ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists Brazil as the +105 favorite (risk $100 to win $105) on the 90-minute money line in its latest Mexico vs. Brazil odds, while Mexico is the +230 underdog. The over-under for total goals scored is set at 2.5. Before you lock in your Brazil vs. Mexico picks or 2020 Olympic soccer predictions, you need to see what consummate soccer insider Martin Green has to say.
After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Since then, his European soccer picks have been spot-on. Green has generated nearly $19,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season, and he has his finger on the pulse of the game all over the globe.
Now, Green has taken a close look at the Brazil vs. Mexico matchup and revealed his Olympics 2020 soccer expert picks. You can head to SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the 2020 Olympic soccer odds and betting trends for Mexico vs. Brazil:
- Mexico vs. Brazil spread: Brazil -0.5 (+110)
- Mexico vs. Brazil over-under: 2.5 goals
- Mexico vs. Brazil money line: Brazil +105, Mexico +230, Draw +230
- MEX: Luis Romo, 26, tied for the Liga MX lead with 10 assists last season
- BRA: Matheus Cunha, 22, has 20 goals in 23 matches with the U-23 team
Why you should back Brazil
The Selecao has their usual swagger, even if they haven't been lighting up the tournament so far. Still, the Brazilians are unbeaten through four games (3-1-0) and have an 8-3 goal advantage. They beat Germany 4-2 and Saudi Arabia 3-1 but struggled in a scoreless draw with the Ivory Coast. They held 63 percent possession against Egypt and had five shots on target but scored just one goal. Still, the combination of Matheus Cunha and Richarlison is as good as it gets in this event. Cunha scored the winner against the Egyptians on an assist from the Everton man.
Richarlison is the tournament's top scorer with five goals, and Cunha has scored twice. Plenty of playmakers can create chances for the dynamic duo, with Bruno Guimaraes, Antony and Claudinho among the creative forces. Brazil manager Andre Jardine opted to focus on defense with his over-age picks, with 38-year-old Dani Alves captaining the squad and Diego Carlos, 28, joining him on the back line. Goalkeeper Santos, 31, also is a steady presence behind them. Brazil has not lost an Olympic match since the London 2012 final (6-4-0).
Why you should back Mexico
El Tri comes in with soaring confidence after destroying a strong South Korea side while Brazil struggled to beat upstart Egypt. The Egyptians had a few chances to get an equalizer, and Mexico's attack is far better in the hands of over-age choices Henry Martin and Luis Romo. The Mexicans also have a veteran in net, with goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa providing the young players confidence. Martin and young star midfielder Sebastian Cordova both have three goals in the tournament, while Romo, Alexis Vega and Eduardo Aguirre have all scored twice.
Romo has been the engine, and he had a goal and two assists in the quarterfinal, while Henry is the star striker for perennial Liga MX contender Club America. Mexico leads the tournament with 14 goals, one more than South Korea and five more than No. 3 Brazil. It demolished the South Koreans on Saturday, converting six of eight shots on net while outshooting them 23-7 overall.
How to make Brazil vs. Mexico picks
Green has taken a close look at the Brazil vs. Mexico match from all sides, and he's leaning over on the goal total. He also has two confident best bets and a full breakdown of this 2020 Tokyo Olympics soccer semifinal. He's only sharing those expert picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Brazil vs. Mexico? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see the best bets for Mexico vs. Brazil, all from the soccer expert who has generated nearly $19,000 for $100 bettors over the past four seasons, and find out.