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Chelsea can't afford to get caught looking ahead when it visits Aston Villa for the English Premier League finale on Sunday. Chelsea will face Manchester City on May 29 in the Champions League final, but only a win on Sunday can assure it of a return to the competition next season. The Blues are third in the standings, but just one point ahead of Liverpool and Leicester City, after beating Leicester 2-1 on Tuesday. That league victory came two days after a 1-0 loss to the Foxes in the FA Cup final. Aston Villa is 11th in the table, and that spot is locked in regardless of Sunday's result.

Kickoff is set for 11 a.m. ET at Villa Park in Birmingham, England. Chelsea is the 1.5-goal and -215 money-line favorite (risk $215 to win $100) in the latest Chelsea vs. Aston Villa odds from  William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under for total goals scored is 2.5. Before you make any Aston Villa vs. Chelsea picks, check out the English Premier League predictions from SportsLine's Martin Green.

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After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper. Since then, his European soccer picks have been spot-on. In fact, Green has generated $19,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season.

Now, Green has looked at Aston Villa vs. Chelsea from every possible angle. You can visit SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several odds and trends for Chelsea vs. Aston Villa:

  • Chelsea vs. Aston Villa spread: Chelsea -1.5 
  • Chelsea vs. Aston Villa over-under: 2.5 goals
  • Chelsea vs. Aston Villa money line: Chelsea -215, Aston Villa +575, Draw +350   
  • AVL: GK Emiliano Martinez is second in the EPL in save percentage at 76.6
  • CHE: Olivier Giroud has scored in seven straight league meetings with Aston Villa

Why you should back Chelsea

The Blues know they can't take their spot for granted, and manager Thomas Tuchel won't allow it. The team is 18-6-4 in 28 matches since he took over in late January. Chelsea has allowed 34 goals, second-fewest in the league, and is tied for the most clean sheets with 18. It has beaten league champions Manchester City twice and dispatched Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid from the Champions League over the past two months. It controls the ball more than 61 percent of the time and has allowed the second-fewest shots on target.      

Chelsea's defense has been tough to penetrate, but the Blues can also score goals. They are plus-23 in goal differential this season, with Timo Werner leading the attack with 12 goals and 12 assists across all competitions. Tammy Abraham (12 goals) and Olivier Giroud (11) are dangerous options, often coming off the bench, and Christian Pulisic (six goals) is making a strong case to be a full-time starter. Chelsea has 10 players who have scored at least five goals in all competitions.

Why you should back Aston Villa

The Lions looked like a threat to vie for a spot in European competition during a hot start to the season. They faltered a bit after captain Jack Grealish was injured, but their victory against Tottenham shows they can still compete. They are 2-2-2 in their past six matches, including a scoreless draw and a 2-1 victory against eighth-place Everton in a span of 12 days. Villa has been held off the score sheet just once in its past nine matches, scoring multiple goals five times.

Ollie Watkins scored against Spurs and has 16 goals and five assists in all competitions. The Lions have 10 players with multiple goals, with Anwar El Ghazi putting up 10, and they are fourth in the league in total shots (514). Grealish, who has 10 goals and seven assists in 26 matches, is returning to fitness and could start Sunday. Bertrand Traore stepped up in his absence and has seven goals and six assists, while John McGinn has set up five goals. 

How to make EPL picks for Chelsea vs. Aston Villa

Green is leaning under on the goal total (2.5), and he's also revealed his best bets and analysis, including a strong play with a plus-money payout. He's only sharing his top picks here.

So who wins Aston Villa vs. Chelsea? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see the top picks for Chelsea vs. Aston Villa, all from the European soccer expert who has generated $19,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season.