Bayern Munich visits Paris Saint-Germain for a 2021 UEFA Champions League quarterfinal match on Tuesday, and the defending champion faces an uphill climb to advance. The Germans lost 3-2 at home in the first leg, and injuries that include star striker Robert Lewandowski won't make things any easier. Bayern dominated last Wednesday's match, but PSG's Kylian Mbappe was surgical on the counter-attack. Bayern sits atop the German Bundesliga table and appears poised for its ninth consecutive title, while PSG is second in its battle with Lille in the French Ligue 1.
Kickoff from Parc de Princes is set for 3 p.m. ET. William Hill Sportsbook lists Bayern Munich as a 0.5-goal and +116 money-line favorite in its latest PSG vs. Bayern Munich odds, while the over-under for total goals scored is 3.5. Before you make any Bayern Munich vs. PSG picks, be sure to see the UEFA Champions League predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proprietary European soccer model.
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Created by two Norwegians -- professional poker player and sports bettor Jonas Gjelstad, and economics and engineering expert Marius Norheim -- the model analyzes worldwide betting data and exploits market inefficiencies, helping its followers cash in. Since coming to SportsLine in 2019, the algorithm is up over $8,200.
Now, the model has set its sights on Bayern Munich vs. PSG. You can visit SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several odds and trends for PSG vs. Bayern Munich:
- PSG vs. Bayern Munich spread: Bayern -0.5
- PSG vs. Bayern Munich over-under: 3.5 goals
- PSG vs. Bayern Munich money line: PSG +190, Bayern +116, Draw +310
- PSG: Angel Di Maria leads Ligue 1 in shot-creating actions per 90 minutes at 7.75.
- FCB: Bayern beat PSG 1-0 in the final of last season's competition
Why you should back Bayern Munich
Losing Lewandowski was a big blow, but the Germans have the depth and talent to keep scoring. They have a league-best 80 goals in 28 Bundesliga matches and are averaging nearly three per game in the Champions League. Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting scored in the first leg in place of Lewandowski, and Thomas Muller also found the back of the net in a game where the Reds outshot PSG 31-6. They put 12 of those on net, testing goalkeeper Keylor Navas repeatedly. The volume of shots shows the deficiency of the PSG defense against a quality side.
The veteran Muller and Joshua Kimmick are a top-notch midfield tandem, and they have a combined 31 assists across all competitions this season. Muller is one of the world's most creative players, while Kimmich excels on corners and through balls. Leroy Sane and Kingsley Coman have three goals apiece in the tournament, among the 12 Bayern players with goals. Bayern is averaging almost 17 shots per game in UCL play, while PSG is getting just over 12.
Why you should back PSG
The Parisians have scored in 43 of their last 44 Champions League matches, with the 1-0 loss to Bayern in last year's final the only exception. They will throw everything they can at Bayern early to try for the goal that will put Bayern in serious desperation mode. Bayern's deficit already will force the Germans to take chances, and that will provide even more opportunities for the PSG counter-attack. Mbappe was electric in scoring twice in the first leg, and he has explosive speed and is a clinical finisher.
Neymar has been dinged up, but the Brazilian superstar appears to be healthy, and he also is averaging a goal a game in his six UCL appearances. Mbappe and Neymar also have the creativity to set up teammates, with Mbappe providing seven assists in league play while Neymar has three in just 13 games. Angel Di Maria is the director of the offense when PSG is controlling the pace, and the Argentinian has 11 assists in all competitions.
How to make picks for PSG vs. Bayern Munich
The model is leaning under on the goal total, and it also has locked in a strong money-line pick for Bayern Munich vs. PSG. You can only get that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Bayern Munich vs. PSG? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the PSG vs. Bayern Munich money line has all the value, all from the proprietary European soccer model that's up over $8,200.