Atletico Madrid will try to use its disadvantages as motivation when it takes on Chelsea on Tuesday in a 2020-21 UEFA Champions League Round of 16 match. Atletico will be the home team, but the game will be played at National Arena in Bucharest, Romania because of the pandemic. Atletico also comes in off a 2-0 loss to Levante in La Liga and has faced a heavy workload in the past week. Chelsea is 5-0-1 under new coach Thomas Tuchel, but it suffered a disappointing 1-1 draw with Southampton on Saturday.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET. The latest Chelsea vs. Atletico Madrid odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Chelsea at +175 and Atletico Madrid at +185 on the money line. The over-under for total goals scored is 2.5. Before making any Chelsea vs. Atletico Madrid picks, be sure to see the UEFA Champions League predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proprietary European soccer model.
Created by two Norwegians -- professional poker player and sports bettor Jonas Gjelstad, and economics and engineering expert Marius Norheim -- the model analyzes worldwide betting data and exploits market inefficiencies, helping its followers cash in. Since coming to SportsLine in 2019, the algorithm is up more than $8,900.
The model also made some strong calls in the final group stage of the Champions League, correctly predicting RB Leipzig (+150) defeating Manchester United, Sevilla (+135) knocking off Rennes and Liverpool playing to a draw (+275) with Midtjylland.
Now, the model has set its sights on Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are several odds and trends for Chelsea vs. Atletico Madrid:
- Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea spread: Chelsea -0.5
- Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea over-under: 2.5 goals
- Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea money line: Atletico +185, Chelsea +175
- AM: MF Marcos Llorente has two goals and two assists over the last four games.
- CHE: The Blues have outscored opponents 9-2 in the seven games under Thomas Tuchel.
Why you should back Atletico Madrid
Atletico has two of the world's top players in Luis Suarez and Marcos Llorente, and they face a Chelsea team that is still trying to find the right tactics for its personnel. Suarez is tied with Lionel Messi atop La Liga with 16 goals, and he rattled the post on a vicious free kick against Levante. The squad has just five points in its last four league games, but it has been creating chances.
Llorente is tied for the league lead with seven assists and also has scored eight goals. Angel Correa and Joao Felix also are dangerous scorers, and Correa had a goal disallowed by a foul and Felix also had his chances against Levante. The Chelsea defense has been helped by its volume of possession, but Atletico is steady in the back and has the weapons to counterstrike.
Why you should back Chelsea
The Blues had won five in a row before the draw with Southampton, and Tuchel is finding a balance between offense and defense. They face an Atletico side that played three games in six days coming in, including two bruising matches with Levante. Chelsea's strength is on defense, and the goal allowed Saturday was the first scored by an opposing player under Tuchel.
Chelsea has scorers in Tammy Abraham (team-high six goals), Timo Werner (five) and Jorginho (five). Four other players have netted at least four. Werner and Mason Mount set up their teammates for success, with Werner leading the team with five assists and Mount adding four. The attacking style of Atletico yields goals, with 10 allowed in its last seven games.
How to make Champions League picks for Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea
The model is leaning under on the total, and it has also locked in its projected final score and spread pick. You can only get these picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Chelsea vs. Atletico Madrid? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Atletico Madrid vs. Chelsea money line has all the value, all from the proprietary European soccer model that's up more than $8,900.