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Italy will be trying to start another streak from scratch on Sunday when it hosts Belgium in the 2020-21 UEFA Nations League third-place match in Turin, Italy. Both teams come off crushing losses in the semifinals, where the Italians saw their record 37-game unbeaten run snapped in a 2-1 loss to Spain on Wednesday. Belgium had a 2-0 lead in its Thursday matchup with France but couldn't hold on and suffered a 3-2 loss. Belgium is the world's top-ranked team, while Italy is No. 5, and these teams last faced off in the Euro 2020 quarterfinals in July. Italy won that match 2-0 before beating Spain and England in penalty shootouts to win the title.

Kickoff from Juventus Stadium is set for 9 a.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists Italy as the +105 favorite (risk $100 to win $105) in its latest Italy vs. Belgium odds, with Belgium the +260 underdog. A draw is priced at +250 and the over-under for total goals scored is set at 2.5. Before making any Belgium vs. Italy picks or 2020-21 UEFA Nations League predictions, make sure you check out what European soccer insider Martin Green has to say.

After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper. Since then, his European soccer picks have hauled in stunning profits. Green has generated well over $36,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season.

Now, Green has taken a close look at Belgium vs. Italy from every possible angle and just released his coveted best bets. You can visit SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several odds and trends for Italy vs. Belgium:

  • Italy vs. Belgium spread: Italy -0.5 (-110)
  • Italy vs. Belgium over-under: 2.5 goals 
  • Italy vs. Belgium money line: Italy +105, Belgium +260, Draw +250    
  • Italy: Lorenzo Insigne scored 19 goals last season with Napoli in Serie A 
  • Belgium: Romelu Lukaku had 47 goals the past two seasons with Inter Milan

Why you should back Italy

The Italians will have an extra day of rest and face a deflated Belgium team that will be heartbroken by being denied another chance to win a trophy. The Belgians have struggled to win the biggest games with its golden generation and will face pressure to do it here. The Azzurri has that European title in its pocket and the home crowd behind it, so it will play as if it has nothing to lose. The aging Belgian defense had major trouble with France on Thursday, and while Italy can't match the quality of the French attackers, it has plenty of pace to cause trouble.

Ciro Immobile and Andrea Bellotti are out injured, but Federico Chiesa, Lorenzo Insigne and Moise Kean all can find the net. Insigne has six goals and midfielder Nicola Barella has five in all competitions in 2021, and UEFA Player of the Year Jorginho has three. The three have combined for seven assists. Jorginho and Barella are joined in the midfield by Marco Verratti to form a strong triumvirate that should be able to find the holes and exploit them. Giorgio Chiellini, 37, is the general in the back, and goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma is becoming a star.

Why you should back Belgium

The Belgians are undoubtedly disappointed, but this is a challenge they want to meet, and the squad is loaded with stars. Romelu Lukaku caused major trouble for the French and appeared to have the winner, but it was wiped out by a close offside call. France scored at the 90-minute mark to dash Belgium's hopes. Kevin De Bruyne also had numerous chances Thursday and is the world's best midfielder. He can set up Lukaku or Eden Hazard in perfect spots to succeed. 

Belgium has scored at least once in 38 straight games, dating to the 2018 World Cup. It could find areas to exploit an Italian defense featuring the young Baston and the feisty, but past-his-prime, Chiellini. The Belgian back line is aging, too, but Jan Vertonghen, 34, and Toby Alderweireld, 32, have spent years together in international and club play. They have the experience to thwart any challenges, and Italy doesn't have strikers of the quality of France's Kylian Mbappe and Karim Benzema. Goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois is one of the world's best. 

How to make UEFA Nations League picks for Italy vs. Belgium

Green has scrutinized Sunday's Italy vs. Belgium match from every angle, and he is leaning over on the goal total. He also has revealed two confident best bets, including one with value on a plus-money payout, and has a complete analysis of this UEFA Nations League match. Green is only sharing his expert soccer picks at SportsLine.

So, who wins Belgium vs. Italy in Sunday's UEFA Nations League third-place match? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see the best bets for the Italy vs. Belgium match, all from the European soccer expert who has generated more than $36,000 for $100 bettors over the past four seasons, and find out.