I mentioned when making my picks for this week's earlier matches that road teams and overs had been excellent bets since the Bundesliga returned to action. Things evened out a bit during Tuesday and Wednesday's matches, as road teams went 2-2-5 (wins, losses, draws) and overs went 5-4. Whether or not this is a sign of things regressing to the mean or just a random sample, I don't know.
What I do know is we have a lot more Bundesliga this weekend! There are eight more matches from Saturday through Monday, and I have three more plays to help you get through them all.
Hertha Berlin (-118) vs. Augsburg
There was no telling how teams would respond to the layoff when the league shut down, but it seems the time off did wonders for Hertha Berlin. The team had managed only five points in its five matches heading into the break and were outscored 15-7 in those matches. Since returning, Hertha has picked up seven points in three matches and outscored opponents 9-2. They even managed a 2-2 draw against RB Leipzig, one of the best teams in the league last time out.
Augsburg, meanwhile, has scored four goals in three matches, but three of those goals came against Schalke. Using expected goals, they shouldn't even have scored that many. So, based on recent form, there's good value on Hertha Berlin here.
Schalke (+150) vs. Werder Bremen
Schalke has been awful since the return. They've lost all three matches and have only managed to find the back of the net once. That's led to a depressed total for this game. If Schalke is going to break out of its scoring funk any time soon, this could be the match for it to happen.
This is a Werder Bremen team that has allowed more than two goals per game on the road this season. They're also a side that has been quite lucky when it comes to scoring goals on the road. Bremen has scored 20 goals in 14 away matched, but expected goals suggest that total should be closer to 13. Schalke isn't as bad as its recent form suggests, and at this price, there's good value on them at home.
Borussia Monchengladbach vs. Union Berlin (Over 2.5)
Honestly, I expect Monchengladbach to reach this over on its own. This is a team that has scored 2.2 goals per match at home already, and its average expected goals at home has been 2.6. Union Berlin, meanwhile, has been one of the worst road teams in the league this season. It has managed only 11 points in 14 matches, allowing 2.1 goals per match. In its sole road match since returning, it allowed four goals to Hertha Berlin.
So who should you back in the Bundesliga on Matchday 29? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the money line has all the value in every Bundesliga match, all from the proprietary European soccer model that's up an eye-popping 13,800 percent.