The Bundesliga isn't taking a lot of time off between matchdays this week. After holding games on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, the league is taking Monday off before returning on Tuesday with one of the biggest matches on the calendar.
Borussia Dortmund sits second in the table with 57 points, trailing Bayern Munich by four points. On Tuesday, Dortmund welcomes Bayern to Signal Iduna Park. A Dortmund win would close the gap on Bayern to one point and set up an epic title race down the stretch. On the other side of the coin, a Bayern win would put the club seven points up on second place, and that margin could be too large to overcome.
So what's going to happen? Well, I have a pick for that match, as well as two others.
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Borussia Dortmund vs. Bayern Munich (Over 3.5)
Dortmund at +270 at home is decent value, but I'm not sure how much home-field means in the Bundesliga right now. Early results have shown that, without fan support, it doesn't mean a whole lot. In the 18 Bundesliga matches that have been played since the league returned, home teams have won three matches, drawn five, and lost 10. The only three teams to win at home have been Dortmund, Bayern and Hertha Berlin. Dortmund and Bayern are elite sides. Hertha beat a Union Berlin team that's closer to the relegation zone than it is to the middle of the table.
The other trend worth noticing is that overs are 11-6-1 since the return. The Bundesliga was already one of Europe's higher-scoring leagues, but the offenses have proven to be far more advanced than the defenses thus far. I expect that trend to continue this week.
Going back to the beginning of the 2016/17 season, these clubs have met 12 times and have averaged 3.83 goals per match. Eight of the 12 matches have had at least four goals scored. It's a trend I expect to continue on Tuesday.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Freiburg (Over 2.5)
I mentioned above that overs are 11-6-1 since the league started back up, but if we dig deeper, there's a trend in there that's worth exploring. There have been five matches that had a total set at 2.5. Four of those five matches have gone over. Frankfurt has one of the weakest defenses in the league this season, allowing 49 goals, though the team has been much better defensively at home. As stated above, however, being at home doesn't matter nearly as much as it used to without fans.
Then there's Freiburg, which is allowing an average of 1.37 goals per match this season. That's not bad! The problem -- for Freiburg, anyway -- is that advanced stats show the club has been quite lucky. Using expected goals allowed, it should have allowed 49.82 goals this season or 1.85 per game. We're hoping things even out on Tuesday.
Union Berlin vs. Mainz (Over 2.5)
Two teams in serious need of a win with suspect defenses. Mainz has allowed 60 goals this season, more than any other team in the Bundesliga. It let RB Leipzig put up five goals against it on Sunday, a week after it blew a 2-0 lead against Koln late.
Union Berlin's defense has been better overall, but the club has allowed six goals in two matches since the return, including four against a Hertha Berlin team that hadn't been prolific all season long. I think we're more likely to see four goals scored in this match than two, so the over is the easy play.