This season's UEFA Champions League quarterfinals look a bit different than what we're accustomed to seeing. Many of the usual suspects have been knocked out, while a few more "underdogs" have carried on.
That's not the case with this match. On Friday we all get to watch two of the best clubs in the world go at it. We have the crown jewel of German soccer in.
We have two of the greatest players not only in the world today, but possibly ever in Lionel Messi and Robert Lewandowski squaring off.
This is the kind of match you might expect to see in a Champions League final, and we're getting it in a quarterfinal. I can't wait to watch it, nor can I wait to bet it.
All odds via William Hill Sportsbook.
Bayern Munich (-106)
I'm an idiot, but that doesn't mean I'm dumb enough to bet against Bayern Munich. Even though Liverpool ran roughshod over the Premier League this season, I still think Bayern have been the best team in the world this year, and it's shown not only in the Bundesliga but in the Champions League. In eight Champions League matches, this is a team that has outscored opponents 31-6. Read that again. It says thirty-one to six. You can argue that four matches against Red Star and Olympiacos skew those numbers a bit, and it's valid, but did you see the four matches against Chelsea and Tottenham?
Bayern won all four by a combined score of 17-4. I don't speak German, but I'm pretty sure the word used to describe this team is Deathbyfreighttrainingsmashen.
As for Barcelona, they're one of the biggest clubs in the world, and they have demi-god Lionel Messi playing, but this team hasn't lived up to the usual standards. Messi essentially beat Napoli on his own last week. Barcelona won the match 3-1, but the xG for the match had Napoli ahead 2.34 to 1.06, and it's important to remember that 0.8 of Barca's tally came from Suarez's penalty.
Messi is Messi, so we can't rule out the possibility of him being amazing and carrying Barcelona further in this tournament, but there's a vast gulf between Napoli and Bayern. I don't think even Messi can make up for it on his own.
Over 2.5 (-170)
Honestly, Bayern could easily get to three goals on their own here. They've been that devastating. They have averaged 3.04 xG per match and 3.89 goals per match in the Champions League.
The fact Barcelona's defense hasn't been great (in context with Barcelona) doesn't hurt my confidence either. They have only managed two clean sheets in eight Champions League matches, and in La Liga Barcelona tied for fifth in fewest goals allowed (38) and were fourth in xGA. Their inability to keep opponents from finding the back of the net was a significant reason why Real Madrid won the league instead.
Robert Lewandowski to score two or more goals (+350)
It's just a prop that makes sense with everything else we've got going on here. I expect Bayern to win, and I expect Bayern to score a lot of goals. So it would only make sense that I take a shot on one of the greatest goalscorers on the planet right now. Lewandowski has scored 57 goals across all competitions this season. That includes 13 goals scored in the seven UCL matches he's participated in, and he's scored at least two goals in four of those seven matches. So, when I see these odds on him doing it again, it's hard to pass up.
So who wins Bayern Munich vs. Barcelona? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Bayern Munich vs. Barcelona money line has all the value, all from the proprietary European soccer model that's up an eye-popping 13,800 percent.