Champions League odds: Man City vs. FC Basel picks from proven computer model

English Premier League-leading Manchester City visits FC Basel in the first leg of the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 on Tuesday at 2:45 p.m. ET. Man City is a 1.5-goal favorite, unchanged from the opening line. City is a -272 money line favorite, meaning you would have to wager $272 to win $100.

The over-under, or total number of goals oddsmakers think will be scored, is three, unchanged from the open.

Before you bet Manchester City vs. FC Basel, you need to see what renowned British soccer expert David Sumpter has to say.

Sumpter is an applied mathematician who wrote Soccermatics, the book that shows how math works inside the game. Together with experienced analysts, Professor Sumpter developed the powerful Soccerbot model.

Sumpter's Soccerbot reads current odds and all team performance data, calculates key metrics and predicts upcoming matches. In the 2.5 seasons since it was born, the Soccerbot is up 1,800 percent on bookmakers' closing odds. That's right -- 1,800 percent.

Now, he has set his sights on the Champions League fixture between Manchester City and FC Basel and his picks are in.

We can tell you Sumpter is leaning toward the total going over, but what about betting the money line and against the spread?

Sumpter knows this game will go a long way in determining who advances to the next round of the Champions League. The Premier League leaders enter with confidence after dismantling Leicester City by a final score of 5-1.

Sergio Aguero, who scored four second-half goals against the Foxes, now has 21 goals in 22 Premier League appearances this season. And Aguero scored three goals in the group stages of the Champions League, all away from home.

That's good news for Pep Guardiola's side, which won five of its six group stage games in the Champions League.

Meanwhile, Basel, which has lost two of its best players since the group stages, lost to Lugano 1-0 in its most recent home fixture.

But just because Manchester City has had an extremely successful season thus far doesn't mean it can go on the road and cover a 1.5-goal spread.

Basel has won nine of its past 10 competitive games, which includes a well-deserved 1-0 home victory against Manchester United.

Sumpter has identified where the value lies on the money line and against the spread.

So which side should you back in FC Basel-Manchester City on Tuesday? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Basel-City you need to be all over, all from an expert whose model has made an incredible 1,800 percent return on bookmakers' closing odds, and find out.

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