Corner Picks: Best bets for Arsenal vs. Spurs in the North London derby, Milan vs. Napoli and more

Corner Picks looks to keep the ball rolling this weekend.

By Tom Fornelli

Mar 12, 2021 at 1:55 pm ET • 3 min read

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Don't look now, but I've stacked three consecutive winning weeks in this column. If we toss in profitable weeks of Champions League picks, I might start being confused with somebody who knows what the heck they're talking about.

Of course, what I've gotten correct in recent weeks doesn't matter nearly as much as what I get right this weekend. I promise that I haven't been resting on my laurels. While the rest of the country has been watching college basketball all week long, I've been betting on college basketball, and I've had it running in the background as I'm in the lab crunching numbers for this weekend's matches.

That's just the kind of dedication I have to you, as well as my degeneracy. Some might call me a hero. Are they right? I don't know, that's not for me to decide. All odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.

1. Everton vs. Burnley

Everton has spent most of the season flirting with the top four, but they've been sliding further and further away over recent weeks. The Toffees have not played well as of late, though the results don't show it. Everton picked up 14 points from their last 10 Premier League matches, with four wins, but the expected goals (xG) tell a different story. Over those 10 matches, the xG battle shows the Toffees have been outscored 16-10.3. That stretch has led to Everton now having an xG difference of -5.5 on the season. They're the only team currently in the top half of the Premier League table with a negative xG difference.

While matches might not be settled by xG, it gives us a better idea of how a team is playing, one that results can sometimes mask.

That makes Burnley attractive in this spot. Burnley bring a highly pragmatic approach every weekend, and that approach has helped it pick up eight points in its last seven matches (one win, one loss, five draws). Pick: Burnley to win or draw (-110)

2. Arsenal vs. Tottenham

As somebody who has profited handsomely by blindly fading Arsenal when they're favored this year, believe me, this pick hurts. That said, it's a pick that is borne of the same spirit of #FadeArsenal. Soccer seasons are long and teams ebb and flow. Right now, Tottenham's on a hot streak. They've won five straight and six of seven. Gareth Bale has seemingly rediscovered his form and passion for the game. He's unstoppable. People are wondering if Tottenham has figured it out. They may have.

It's also possible Tottenham's been beating up on a bunch of bums.

Two of Tottenham's last six wins have come against Wolfsberger AC, a fifth-place team in the Austrian league. Another win has come against Dinamo Zagreb, the best team in Croatia. The other wins have come against Burnley (15th in Premier League), Fulham (18th) and Crystal Palace (13th). The lone loss came against the only good team they've played in that stretch (West Ham). We saw the same run from Tottenham earlier this year when they went eight straight matches without losing against the bottom of the league and lower-level sides in cup competitions. Then they lost five of their next six when the competition became real again. Arsenal aren't great, but they're improving, and their improvement has come against better teams than the ones Spurs have been beating up on. I'm trusting my gut here. Pick: Arsenal (+155)

3. AC Milan vs. Napoli

This is a massive match for both teams in Serie A. If AC Milan want to hold onto any hope of winning the league they need to keep pace with a red-hot Inter team. If Napoli want to finish in the top four and qualify for next year's Champions League, they can't afford to drop points from here on out. All of which comes together and makes for a fascinating situation at San Siro Stadium Sunday.

I like the dog, and not just because I always like this dog (I'm a Napoli fan). AC Milan just haven't been the same team without Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Zlatan hasn't played since Milan's 2-1 win against Roma to finish February. The Rossoneri have managed a win and two draws without him but have a total xG of only 2.8 in those three matches. They just don't provide the same level of threat without their big striker. Meanwhile, Napoli have dealt with injuries to key players all year and are finally getting healthy. It's shown in recent results too, as they've won three of four and are averaging 1.93 xG per match in the process. Napoli win this match often enough to meet this price. Pick: Napoli (+175)