Corner Picks: Best bets for Manchester United-Man City, the Milan derby and more

Corner Picks looks to keep the ball rolling this weekend.

By Tom Fornelli

Nov 5, 2021 at 12:45 pm ET • 5 min read

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I am terrified. I have not followed club soccer closely my entire life. I didn't become a die-hard fan of any team or the sport until 2010. The two teams I chose to support were Aston Villa in England and Napoli in Italy. Both have filled a role for me.

My time as an Aston Villa fan coincided with the club free-falling from one of the top clubs in England to a club that battled relegation every season until finally succumbing to it and spending a few years in the Championship. Now, a couple of years after finally returning to the Premier League, November begins with Villa three points above the relegation zone. I don't think this team is bad enough to be relegated, but the fear exists because it's happened before.

Then there's Napoli. Napoli had been the sunshine in my life. While they weren't winning Serie A or a bunch of trophies, they've always been a fun and entertaining team to watch. Always good enough to demand respect, but never good enough to break through. They always finds a way to let you down, but it's usually a soft letdown. Now, November begins, and Napoli have played like the best team in Italy. They're tied at the top with AC Milan and have allowed only three goals all season long. My expectations have been raised, and I fear that soft letdown won't be nearly as soft this season.

Am I broken, or just prescient? Only time will tell. So, while we're waiting, we might as well bet on other matches. All odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.

Manchester United vs. Manchester City, Sat. 8:30 a.m, NBCSN

Manchester City have been in a bit of a rut lately. Now, they're still Manchester City, so the word rut is relative, but this team hasn't been operating at max capacity. That's particularly true on the defensive end where they've let teams who wouldn't typically score against them do just that. There was last week's 2-0 loss to Crystal Palace, but even Club Brugge managed to draw even at 1-1 during the Champions League this week before City stormed back. Before that, Brighton put one in the net, and numbers suggest they could have had another. There's wiggle room in that Man City defense.

And while City have still been great everywhere, they do allow more chances away from home, which is where they'll be in spirit this week at Old Trafford. As for the Red Devils, we were able to take advantage of the narrative last week by picking them to win, and while I'm not nearly as confident in United getting a result this weekend, I believe they can get at least one goal. That's likely all we'll need to hit this over, and even if United doesn't score, City's capable of putting up at least three on its own. The Pick: Over 2.5 (-160)

AC Milan vs. Inter Milan, Sun. 2:45 p.m, Paramount+

First of all, I swear I'm not picking Inter Milan because AC Milan are tied with Napoli in first place. It just happens that this is both the result I want and the result I think is most likely. While AC Milan are off to a fantastic start to the season, there's been a theme to their performances. I'm not going to go as far as calling Milan bumslayers in the Barcelona mold, but they haven't been all that different. I know they're in a tough Champions League group, but we shouldn't ignore that they've managed only a point in four matches. In Serie A, Milan have picked up impressive wins against Lazio, Atalanta and Roma, but those last two wins included shaky defensive performances.

And that last part is what has me worried. If we pick apart Inter's resume, we can say some of the same things we've said about Milan, but while Inter have been worse defensively on the season, they've been much better as of late. Inter have won three straight matches since a 1-1 draw with Juventus and allowed only 1.2 expected goals (xG) across those three matches. AC Milan have allowed fewer than 1.0 xG only twice in its last eight matches. The average xG allowed per match in that span has been 1.13, or nearly as much as Inter's allowed in their last three combined. Milan have been able to get away with that against weaker teams, but it'll come back to haunt you against the better ones, and that's what I'm betting happens this weekend. The Pick: Inter Milan (+119)

Juventus vs. Fiorentina, Sat. 1 p.m, Paramount+

Fiorentina are an entertaining team. They're led by Dusan Vlahovic, a striker with eight goals on the season after scoring 21 last season, who at 21 years of age is poised to become one of the best goal scorers in the world. He's the kind of player who will dominate in Italy for the rest of this season at least and then end up at a bigger club, and somebody will describe him as "coming out of nowhere." The problem for Fiorentina is that as fun and entertaining as they are, they're also a team with a ceiling.

If you look at the team's results this season, they have six wins and five losses. The six wins have come against teams with an average of 11 points between them. The five losses have come to teams with an average of 20.2 points this season, with Venezia being the only one not in the top six of the league. Fiorentina beat the teams they're supposed to beat, but so far haven't shown the ability to beat Serie A's best. While Juventus are off to a slow start to the season, they're still one of the best teams in Italy, as their Champions League performance has shown. The Pick: Juventus (-160)

Weekend Parlay

The parlay has lost two weeks in a row. First, it was Everton losing to Watford. Last week, Manchester City ruined it by losing to Crystal Palace. Surely, the third time will be the charm. This week's parlay pays +157.