Brighton & Hove Albion v Chelsea: Pre-Season Friendly
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Admittedly, the first weekend of the new Premier League season didn't go according to plan, or at least according to my picks. While I went 1-2 overall, I don't have regrets about any of my picks, anyway. I only regret the results.

I picked Southampton to beat Crystal Palace, but despite edging Palace 1.1-0.8 in expected goals, Crystal Palace won 1-0. My draw play on Everton-Tottenham saw an xG of 1.4-1.0 in Everton's favor. Everton scored its goal. Spurs didn't.

That's just the way things go sometimes, and I'm confident the ball will bounce our way this weekend.

DATEHOMEAWAYTIME (ET)TVO/U

Sat., Sept. 19

Everton (-1.5)

West Brom

7:30 a.m.

Peacock

2.5

Leeds (-0.5)

Fulham

10 a.m.

Peacock 

2.5

Man United (1.5)

Crystal Palace

12:30 p.m.

Peacock 

2.5

Arsenal (-1.5)

West Ham

3 p.m.

NBCSN

2.5

Sun., Sept. 20

Southampton

Spurs (-0.5)

7 a.m.

Peacock 

2.5

Newcastle (-0.5)

Brighton

9 a.m.

Peacock 

2.5

Chelsea

Liverpool (-0.5)

11:30 a.m.

Peacock 

2.5

Leicester (-0.5)

Burnley

2 p.m.

NBCSN

2.5

Mon., Sept. 21

Aston Villa (-0.5)

Sheffield United

1 p.m.

Peacock 

2.5

Wolves

Man City (-1.5)

3:15 p.m.

Peacock 

2.5

All lines via William Hill Sportsbook

1. Everton vs. West Brom: Under 2.5 (+107)

I was quite impressed with what I saw from Everton last weekend, but I believe that the team's attack still has a few kinks to work out with so many new players in the midfield. That said, the defense looked strong against Tottenham, and this week it's facing a much weaker side in West Brom. The Baggies managed only one shot on target during their 3-0 loss to Leicester, and I don't have much faith in them to score here. I don't think betting West Brom to not score at +110 is a bad value at all, but I like the under 2.5 better.

2. Southampton vs. Tottenham: Over 2.5 (-106)

As mentioned above, Southampton got a bit unlucky last week, as they dominated possession of the ball and got more shots on target than Crystal Palace did, but couldn't find the back of the net. Tottenham, meanwhile, looked a bit shaky defensively against Everton. When I look at this weekend's matchup, I think we could be in for quite a few goals, so the over seems quite appealing. Particularly at this price.

3. Chelsea vs. Liverpool: Both Teams to Score (-170)

I like Liverpool to win as well, but I'm not incredibly confident in it. While the defending champions had an exhilarating close call against Leeds last week, winning 4-3, the final wasn't as close as it looked. According to xG, Leeds got lucky as they finished with three goals despite an xG of only 0.6. Liverpool's xG was 3.3, which was much more in line with the four they scored. I don't expect Liverpool's attack to suffer any this week against a poor Chelsea defense, but Chelsea's attack is so strong that it's hard to imagine them not getting on the board. Both teams to score seems almost too easy here.


RecordUnits

Last Week

1-2

-1.17

Overall

1-2

-1.17

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