Wouldn't it be great if there was VAR for your bets? Like, if you made a bet, and it wasn't working out, you could take a look at your thought process behind the play in the VAR and then decide the bet doesn't count if you want to. It'd be great. I hope sportsbooks across the globe adapt to the VAR lifestyle.
Anyway, so, yeah, last week didn't go very well. The over in Manchester United and Southampton was easy, and I was able to make up my earlier losses by betting Man United at halftime when it trailed 2-0. So, shout out to you, Edinson Cavani. You perfect human being. I wish you were still at Napoli, but I'll settle for you at United as long as you keep making money for me.
This week I'm looking for more Cavani and a lot less losing. All odds are via William Hill.
1. Burnley vs. Everton
It's counterintuitive to bet the over in Burnley matches because it feels as if Burnley's whole existence is centered on goals being the worst thing in the world. This team ranks 19th in the league in xG but eighth in the league in xG allowed. But while Burnley isn't a threatening side, I like the over here because Everton's defense has been terrible lately. The Toffeest are 14th in the league with an xG allowed of 14.1, but what's important is that 8.3 of those xG (59% of them!) have come in the last four matches alone. And those matches include Newcastle United (2.5 xG) and Fulham (1.3 xG), not exactly two prolific attacks. Burnley just might find the back of the net once or twice here. Pick: Over 2.5 (+100)
2. West Brom vs. Crystal Palace
Listen, West Brom, I'm getting sick and tired of you being terrible and not paying for it. Last week I took Sheffield United to win, and West Brom managed to beat the Blades 1-0 despite the xG battle saying Sheffield United should've won 2.7-1.3. I think that result has made the line here a lot closer than it should be, as the Baggies are still allowing 1.91 xG per match, which is far and away the worst number in the league. While Palace have lost two straight coming into this match, Roy Hodgson's team is the more assertive side both in attack and defense. Pick: Crystal Palace (+155)
3. Tottenham vs. Arsenal
I'm banking on Jose Mourinho to be Jose Mourinho here. When it comes to matches like this, against rivals or top teams, he steers hard into his defensive tendencies. The man has long said that you win trophies by getting results against the top teams and beating the bad ones. Well, while Arsenal is much closer to being one of the bad ones than the top right now, this is still a derby. Plus, the possibility that Mourinho will be without first choice keeper Hugo Lloris makes it all the more likely that he'll park several busses in front of backup Joe Hart. I won't be shocked if this is a scoreless draw. Whatever the result, I think there's far too much value in one of these sides picking up a clean sheet to pass it up. Pick: Both Teams To Score: No (+105)