Corner Picks, Champions League best bets, predictions, odds: Manchester City beat Bayern Munich, Benfica win

Corner Picks looks to keep the ball rolling this weekend.

By Tom Fornelli

Apr 11, 2023 at 9:03 am ET • 5 min read

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The Champions League returns this week on Paramount+ with the beginning of the quarterfinals, and this is a quarterfinal round unlike any I've ever seen. Not because of the draw or the mix of Giant Clubs and Smaller Large Clubs, but because this is the first time I've ever followed the Champions League, and a team I root for has gotten this far.

Normally at this point, I can put my personal feelings aside and root for great soccer and, of course, my bets. But now there's so much more pressure! Napoli have been dog-walking Serie A all season, but I'm nervous about the Champions League! Napoli will win its first Serie A title since 1990, when Diego Maradona was bulldogging all over the pitch, but that feels like old news already. They've had the league wrapped up for what feels like months.

Now I worry that winning Serie A won't be enough if AC Milan knocks them out of the Champions League. These are the kind of dumb backflips your brain does as a sports fan, and hopefully, it won't impact my ability to handicap this week's matches. All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Manchester City vs. Bayern Munich

Date: Tuesday, April 11 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+/CBS | Tactics cam: CBS Sports Golazo Network

This match became a bit more complicated recently with Bayern Munich canning Julian Nagelsmann and replacing him with Thomas Tuchel. Had Nagelsmann still been in charge, I probably take the over and quickly move onto more pressing matters. However, while expecting Tuchel to fix all Bayern's defensive issues in a matter of weeks is too much to ask, Bayern have been better defensively under him! Perhaps more important to this match, Tuchel has had success against Man City in his time. You may remember he beat City in the Champions League final as the manager of Chelsea not long ago.

So there's a chance Bayern will make this one a lot tighter than I'd have picked a few weeks ago, but in the end, I have a hard time envisioning a scenario in which City don't win. Bayern will be without their leading scorer Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting. While Tuchel's had plenty of experience managing teams without a striker, I don't know that Munich will be able to sit back and absorb blows for 90 minutes. City will find a way to break them down eventually, if not multiple times, and I don't fully trust Bayern to answer. The Pick: Manchester City (-135)

Benfica vs. Inter Milan

Date: Tuesday, April 11 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

While they haven't wrapped up the title back in Portugal, Benfica have a seven-point lead over Porto with seven matches left to play, so it would be tough for them to blow it. That allows Benfica the chance to focus on this mid-week match. Inter do not have the same benefit. Inter are scratching and clawing just to stay in the top four of Serie A, and they're not even doing a good job of that. Inter are in fifth because they can't stop doing things like drawing to Salernitana or losing to Spezia.

Seriously, the vibes around Inter are just awful right now. Everything about this team screams that it's a group that is just done. Everybody has heard or said the same thing repeatedly, and it's lost all effectiveness. We see it happen to teams every year, and this Inter squad has reached that point. I have a hard time seeing them get past this round, and it starts Tuesday with a loss in Portugal. The Pick: Benfica (+115)

Real Madrid vs. Chelsea

Date: Wednesday, April 12 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+/CBS | Tactics cam: CBS Sports Golazo Network

On one hand, any time you can get a Premier League team as a +400 underdog in a Champions League match, it's an attractive proposition. Particularly when it's a team that won the Champions League a couple of years ago. On the other hand, have you seen Chelsea lately? They're in 11th place in the Premier League and fired Graham Potter last week. Potter is the second manager Chelsea have fired this season. Thomas Tuchel (you may remember him from previous picks such as Manchester City/Bayern Munich) was the first. Now the team has gone back to Frank Lampard, and I don't mean to disrespect one of the great midfielders of his generation, but Lampard managing against Carlo Ancelotti and Real Madrid in the Champions League is like having your gym teacher fill in for your AP Calculus teacher because she called in sick at the last minute.

He's just going to put on a movie -- probably a WW2 movie -- and hope nobody gets hurt. Chelsea haven't won a match since March 11, and I don't imagine they'll end that streak in Madrid. As for Real Madrid, it can't win La Liga, so the Champions League is the biggest trophy left available to them, and they're still Real Madrid. Playing well in this competition is what they do. The Pick: Real Madrid (-145)

AC Milan vs. Napoli

Date: Wednesday, April 12 | Time: 3 p.m. ET | Watch: Paramount+

This one is tricky. AC Milan beat Napoli 4-0 last week, but I wouldn't read anything into it. Napoli have Serie A wrapped up, and with this match looming, let's just say Napoli took a relaxed approach to the match. Also, Victor Osimhen did not play as he was nursing a thigh injury. Osimhen hasn't played in either of Napoli's last two matches and not surprisingly, they've looked a bit out of sync in attack without him. There's a chance Osimhen won't play in this match. If that's the case, it's a massive blow to Napoli.

But I think he will. I don't think the injury was overly serious. My guess is Napoli were playing it safe and holding him out until this match. So the over feels like a great play here because, with Osimhen, Napoli are one of the most potent attacking teams in the world. And that said, while I don't put a lot of stock in Milan's 4-0 win last week, Milan have played well against Napoli in both matches they've played. They lost the first meeting 2-1 but had an xG of 2.6 in that loss. It was a misleading result. The Pick: Over 2.5 (+110)