It's Easter weekend and that can only mean one thing in English football, it's a critical juncture of the season in the EFL. As ever, there is plenty up for grabs with just four games left to play in the Championship. No team is yet promoted, the playoffs look a fair way from being locked up and there is still an almighty scrap at the bottom of the table to avoid falling through the trap door to League One. Indeed, as many as 17 of the league's 24 teams realistically find themselves in one of those three battles.
Friday, April 18, brings the first round of games, where the most significant include an all-Midlands clash between Coventry City and West Bromwich Albion that could have major implications for the playoff race. Meanwhile Luton Town are scrapping to avoid back-to-back relegations away to Derby County before, on Monday, they host top six contenders Bristol City. Can Millwall barge into the top six? Could Plymouth Argyle pull off the great escape? Here's what to keep an eye out for across the Championship double header on Friday and Monday:
1. Is automatic promotion all wrapped up?
Leeds couldn't blow it from here, could they? All through this season, Daniel Farke's men have played the best football in the division, its leading scorers by 19, a defensive record that would surely rank among the best in the competition were it not for the miracles being pulled off by James Trafford and Burnley. In a league famed for its parity, their non-penalty expected goal difference (npxGD) per game is 1.2, not far off the level of dominance that Barcelona have over La Liga. The next best in the competition? Coventry at 0.39.
This is an outstanding team, one that seems totally ready for the Premier League. Then again, much the same could have been said last year or in 2018-19, when it all fell apart down the stretch. Five points clear with four games to go but this is Leeds. Farke is working hard to keep the emotions in check. "Never too high, never too low is normally a good mantra to be successful in this league because if you burn like a candle from both sides you don't have the energy when it counts but without any burning it's also difficult for a candle," he said ahead of Friday's night game at Oxford.
By then, Leeds will know whether Burnley have leapfrogged them and, crucially, whether Sheffield United have closed a points gap that is looking a bit hairy for Chris Wilder's side. Having lost their last three the Blades sit five points behind the top two though it might as well be six given the gulf in goal difference. Surely they must beat Cardiff on Friday and then win their remaining three.
"Pressure is a privilege," said Wilder. "That's an excuse, pressure. It's nonsense. We should be embracing it." They will have to. Even then, it might not be enough. Leeds have held on to win their last two. Burnley may not be the easiest on the eye in attack but they're still unbeaten in the league since early November. These do not look like two sides who are about to let it slip. Still, there is at least one chance for Sheffield United. Easter Monday takes them to Turf Moor. Win there and they are well and truly in the mix.
The race for promotion
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Leeds United | 42 | 53 | 88 |
2 | Burnley | 42 | 44 | 88 |
3 | Sheffield United | 42 | 24 | 83 |
4 | Sunderland | 42 | 19 | 76 |
5 | Bristol City | 42 | 9 | 64 |
6 | Coventry City | 42 | 5 | 63 |
7 | West Bromwich Albion | 42 | 12 | 60 |
8 | Middlesbrough | 42 | 10 | 60 |
9 | Millwall | 42 | 0 | 60 |
10 | Blackburn Rovers | 42 | 0 | 56 |
2. Seeking form for the playoff push
Of greater concern to Sheffield United might be what happens to them if they don't turn their form around in time for the playoffs. The most auspicious word at this stage of the season is momentum and it looks like Wilder's men don't have it. Sunderland haven't been quite the team they were early in the season since February time and look safely ensconced in fourth. Below them, well it's five into two.
Bristol City currently occupy one of those places but face what should be a tricky trip to Luton on Monday as the Hatters scrap for their lives. After that will Leeds and Preston have much to play for? Since the turn of the year, Liam Manning's side have been one of the most in-form outfits in the Championship and have performed notably well against many of the teams they figure to match up against down the stretch. Beating Sunderland on Friday could well be a statement of intent ahead of a playoff matchup next month.
Coventry came out of the international break looking like the team who had timed their burst just right and that second best npxGD in the division suggests this will be a team to take seriously if they make the playoffs. Still it is only four points in as many games for Frank Lampard's side, who will open the door to the chasing pack if they don't beat West Brom.
Among those are Middlesbrough, capable of stringing together for good or bad. A 2-0 win at Blackburn at the start of the month had them up to fifth, defeats to Leeds and Millwall and they are now down to eighth. The latter's triumph also means they are now firmly in the mix as they travel to Blackburn. Win there and they will have arguably eliminated Blackburn from playoff contention. Given that Millwall follow that up with home games against Norwich and Swansea, neither of whom have much to play for, a path to the top six seems to be opening up for The Lions.
3. An almighty relegation scrap
Four games to go and just look at the state of the foot of the Championship. It's three to go down and it is probably only a favorable goal difference that allows Preston North End and Queens Park Rangers to breathe normally. Indeed whichever of those happens to lose at Deepdale on Friday will surely be checking the scores in the dressing room afterwards. Just in case...
"Those 50 points usually mean safety," said QPR boss Marti Cifuentes, "but mathematically it's not done yet and it's important to try to win the last four games."
The foot of the Championship
| Team | P | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
15 | Queens Park Rangers | 42 | -6 | 50 |
16 | Preston North End | 42 | -8 | 49 |
17 | Oxford United | 42 | -17 | 48 |
18 | Stoke City | 42 | -11 | 47 |
19 | Portsmouth | 42 | -16 | 46 |
20 | Hull City | 42 | -9 | 45 |
21 | Derby County | 42 | -10 | 43 |
22 | Cardiff City | 42 | -21 | 42 |
23 | Luton Town | 42 | -26 | 40 |
24 | Plymouth Argyle | 42 | -38 | 40 |
This is a relegation battle where everything can flip in an instant, as was apparent when Portsmouth met Derby last week. In the 90th minute, Pompey found themselves hovering uncomfortably close to the trap door as they trailed 2-1 at home and then Rob Atkinson popped up in the 91st minute to earn them a point and, no less crucially, knock two off Derby's tally.
That could be crucial because none of the sides occupying 22nd to 24th look entirely dead and buried. Luton have won three, drawn three and lost two since the start of March and their trip to Derby promises to be pivotal as the side from last season's Premier League bid to avoid next season's League One. Cardiff will be hoping that Sheffield United's recent troubles continue, after which they'll be eyeing up the chance to draw promoted Oxford United into the mix. Playing their first season in the second tier this season, The U's have begun to inch clear after what was a feast of a start to life under Gary Rowett in December that became a famine in February and March. Three wins in their last five have put them on the cusp of year two in the Championship.
Stoke are also picking up points at the right moment while Hull have lost only twice since March. They have the most intriguing fixture list of those on the cusp of the relegation zone -- could the final two days at home to Derby and away to Portsmouth be pivotal this season?
It might depend on what Plymouth can do. When the Pilgrims sacked Wayne Rooney on New Year's Eve, they had the look of goners, not so much because of the point gap but the level of performance they were delivering. Their xG since would still tell you this is by some way the worst team in the division and Easter games against playoff contenders Middlesbrough and Coventry threaten to expose their shortcomings. Then again, this stage of the season is generally quite a good one for miracles.
Predictions
Top two: Leeds and Burnley
Play offs: Sheffield United, Sunderland, Coventry City, Middlesbrough
Promoted: Coventry City
Relegation: Cardiff City, Luton Town, Plymouth Argyle
