England is ready to party like it's 1966, but it faces a daunting task on Sunday when it takes on Italy in the Euro 2020 final at London's Wembley Stadium. England has not played in a major tournament final since it won the 1966 World Cup on these grounds, and Italy comes in on a 33-game unbeaten run. The Azzurri also have played in the European Championship final three times, winning it in 1968, and they have won four World Cups. Both teams went to extra time in the semifinals, with England beating Denmark 2-1 and Italy winning a shootout with Spain after a 1-1 draw. That could make it a defensive struggle, but both teams have prolific offensive firepower, so the stout defenses could be tested.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET. William Hill Sportsbook lists England as the +150 favorite (risk $100 to win $150) on the 90-minute money line in its latest Italy vs. England odds. Italy is the +230 underdog, and the over-under for total goals scored is set at 1.5. Before locking in any Italy vs. England picks, be sure to check out the Euro 2020 predictions from SportsLine's proprietary European soccer model.
Created by two Norwegians -- professional poker player and sports bettor Jonas Gjelstad, and economics and engineering expert Marius Norheim -- the model analyzes worldwide betting data and exploits market inefficiencies, helping its followers cash in. Since coming to SportsLine last year, the algorithm is up more than $8,500.
Now, the model has set its sights on Italy vs. England at the Euro 2020 final and locked in its best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for England vs. Italy:
- Italy vs. England spread: England -0.5 (+140)
- Italy vs. England over-under: 1.5 goals (over -170, under +140)
- Italy vs. England 90-minute money line: Italy +230, England +150, Draw +190
- Italy: The Azzurri are 3-1-0 all-time in major tournaments against England.
- England: The Three Lions are 15-1-1 in their last 17 matches at Wembley.
Why you should back England
The talk coming into the tournament was about the scoring potential of the English squad, but the defense has been the star of the show. The Three Lions are unbeaten in their last 12 games, posting 10 clean sheets, and Denmark's free-kick goal Wednesday is the only one it has allowed in six tournament games. Now Harry Kane, who led the Premier League in goals (23) and assists (14) last season, has come to life, scoring four times in the past three games. Raheem Sterling, who has four goals in the six Euro 2020 matches, also has been on fire.
Kane and Sterling are supported in attack by a bevy of young Premier League stars, with Mason Mount, Bukayo Saka, Jack Grealish and Phil Foden among the dangerous attacking options. Midfielders Declan Rice, Jordan Henderson and Kalvin Phillips are more than capable on both ends and provide cover for a defense led by Harry Maguire and John Stones. England has had less time to rest, but the 60,000-strong crowd will drown out any fatigue, and England manager Gareth Southgate has insane depth at his disposal and has been making all the right moves.
Why you should back Italy
Italy is eager to cast the bitter taste of its World Cup failure aside once and for all, and it has been on a mission since manager Roberto Mancini took over. It has lost just twice under his direction, the last time a 1-0 setback to Portugal in September 2018. It has scored in all but two of the 33 games since, while holding the opponent scoreless in 23. Mancini relies heavily on defenders Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci, who have played together for Juventus for a decade, to put up a wall in front of star 22-year-old Gianluigi Donnarumma, who mans the net.
The midfielders put in quality work on both ends, with Marco Verratti and Nicolo Barell able to contribute creativity to the offense after hounding opposing attackers. Serie A stars Ciro Immobile (Lazio) and Lorenzo Insigne (Napoli) combined for 39 goals during league play last season and have the pace to disrupt any team's defense. Federico Chiesa, who has two of Italy's five goals in the knockout round, has added a new dimension to an already dominant team. Italy has an 11-8-8 edge all-time against England, and six of the losses were before 1980.
How to make Italy vs. England Euro 2020 picks
The model is leaning under on the total and has also locked in strong money-line and spread picks. You absolutely need to see them before you lock in your own Euro 2020 picks.
So who wins Italy vs. England? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the England vs. Italy money line has all the value, all from the proprietary European soccer model that's up over $8,500.