Italy will be trying to keep its record streak alive on Wednesday when it faces Spain in the 2020-21 UEFA Nations League semifinals in Milan, Italy. The Azzurri are unbeaten in their past 37 matches and beat Spain in a penalty shootout in a semifinal on its way to the Euro 2020 title in June. The Spaniards come in off easy wins against Georgia and Kosovo following a 2-1 loss to Sweden in last month's World Cup qualifying, while Italy routed Lithuania after four straight draws. The all-time series is tied at 3-7-3 in official competitions, and the Spaniards haven't won a match on Italian soil since a friendly meeting in 1971.
Kickoff from the San Siro is set for 2:45 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists Italy as the +125 favorite (risk $100 to win $125) in its latest Italy vs. Spain odds, with Spain the +250 underdog. A draw is priced at +210 and the over-under for total goals scored is set at 2.5. Before you make any Spain vs. Italy picks or UEFA Nations League predictions, you need to check out what European soccer insider Martin Green has to say.
After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper. Since then, his European soccer picks have hauled in stunning profits. Green has generated well over $36,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season.
Now, Green has taken a close look at Spain vs. Italy from every possible angle. You can visit SportsLine now to see Green's picks. Here are several UEFA Nations League odds and betting trends for Italy vs. Spain:
- Italy vs. Spain spread: Italy -0.5 (+120)
- Italy vs. Spain over-under: 2.5 goals
- Italy vs. Spain money line: Italy +125, Spain +250, Draw +210
- Italy: The Azzurri is 11-4-0 in 2021, with a 31-5 goal differential
- Spain: La Roja is 7-6-1 in 2021, with a 30-11 advantage in goals
Why you should back Italy
The Italians will allow Spain to hold the ball and use its devastating counter-attack like it did in the last matchup. Federico Chiesa scored the goal in that match, and he will be called on to lead the attack with Ciro Immobile out with injury. Spain also is without its top striker, and it will be missing several other key players from that Euro meeting. Moise Kean, who scored twice in the rout of Lithuania, and Lorenzo Insigne also could cause a lot of trouble for the Spain defense.
The Italian defense, meanwhile, has been a strength for years and remains tough to penetrate. Captain Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci have played together for more than a decade and lead a back line that has not yielded more than one goal in a game since 2017. It went 11 straight without conceding until the Round of 16 at Euro 2020, and it has posted consecutive clean sheets.
Why you should back Spain
Spain dominates possession with its midfield of Sergio Busquets, Koke and Pedri, and it held the ball for 71 percent of the meeting at Euro 2020. Ferran Torres and Mikel Oyarzabal are able scoring options with striker Alvaro Morata out with injury. Morata scored the equalizer in the Euro meeting but had been under fire because of his struggles to finish. Italy's 5-0 rout of Lithuania last time out was its first win in 90 minutes in five matches, and it struggled at times in draws with Bulgaria and Switzerland in last month's World Cup qualifying matches.
Spain's possession and attacking style put pressure on the defense on counter-attacks, but it is a talented group. Chelsea's Cesar Azpilicueta, Villareal's Pau Torres and Man City's Aymeric Laporte hold the line in front of Unai Simon, who is expected to start in net ahead of David de Gea. The Spaniards have posted consecutive clean sheets in outscoring Georgia and Kosovo 6-0.
How to make UEFA Nations League picks for Italy vs. Spain
Green has analyzed Wednesday's Italy vs. Spain match from every angle, and he is leaning under on the goal total. He also has revealed a confident best bet with a plus-money payout and has a complete analysis of this UEFA Nations League match. He's only sharing his picks and best bets at SportsLine.
Who wins Spain vs. Italy? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see the best bets for Italy vs. Spain, all from the European soccer expert who has generated more than $36,000 for $100 bettors over the past four seasons, and find out.