North London Derby odds: Tottenham vs. Arsenal picks from proven computer model

Arsenal visits Tottenham Hotspur in the North London derby Saturday (7:30 a.m. ET, NBC Sports Network). Tottenham is a half-goal favorite in this Premier League match, unchanged from the opening line. Tottenham is a -105 money-line favorite, meaning you would need to wager $105 to win $100.

The over-under, or total number of goals oddsmakers think will be scored, is three, unchanged from the open.

Before you bet Tottenham vs. Arsenal, you need to see what renowned British soccer expert David Sumpter has to say.

Sumpter is an applied mathematician who wrote Soccermatics, the book that shows how math works inside the game. Together with experienced analysts, Professor Sumpter developed the powerful Soccerbot model.

Sumpter's Soccerbot reads current odds and all team performance data, calculates key metrics and predicts upcoming matches. In the 2.5 seasons since it was born, the Soccerbot is up 1,800 percent on bookmakers' closing odds. That's right -- 1,800 percent.

Now, he has set his sights on the North London derby between Tottenham and Arsenal and his picks are in.

We can tell you Sumpter is leaning toward the total going over, but what about the money line and against the spread?

Sumpter knows this is a big game for both clubs. The North London rivals are fifth and sixth in the Premier League standings heading into Saturday's fixture.

The North London derby is one of England's fiercest rivalries between two clubs located just a few miles from each other. Tottenham and Arsenal have faced each other 194 times, with the Gunners holding an 81-51-62 edge over Spurs.

Both teams enter this matchup with plenty of confidence. Fifth-placed Tottenham sits one spot ahead of Arsenal in the Premier League table and both sides will be looking for a victory to keep their guaranteed Champions League spot alive.

Spurs took four points from their two fixtures against Manchester United and Liverpool, and Spurs forward Harry Kane will look to keep his superb form going against Arsenal. Kane has scored six goals in six Premier League games against the Gunners.

Meanwhile, the Gunners are aiming to win both home and away fixtures against their north London rivals in the Premier League for just the fourth time in the same season.

However, Arsenal might be without starting goalkeeper Petr Cech after he failed to make it through the 5-1 victory over Everton due to a calf injury.

But just because the Gunners could be without one of their most experienced players doesn't mean they won't secure points at Wembley Stadium or provide value on the money line.

The Gunners have won their last nine games at Wembley, including a victory over Chelsea in this season's Community Shield.

Arsenal has also secured points against Spurs in four of their past five meetings, including a 2-0 victory at the Emirates earlier this season.

Sumpter has identified where the value lies. He has identified a glaring statistic that determines which side of Tottenham-Arsenal you need to be all over and he's only sharing it over at SportsLine.

So which side should you back in the North London derby on Saturday? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Tottenham-Arsenal you need to be all over, all from the model that's returned an 1,800 percent profit on the bookmakers' closing odds, and find out.

Our Latest Stories