Premier League talking points: Are Manchester United midtable and where has Arsenal's attacking spark gone?
Sheffield United and Luton Town are in trouble and Fulham are solidly in the middle of the pack
By
James Benge
•
12 min read
We're eight games through the Premier League season, the sort of stage where the numbers and underlying metrics tend to tell us more truths than falsehoods about where teams are. Let's dive in then and see whether there's something or nothing in the state of play so far:
1. Manchester United might just be midtable
We start with a question we posed a month ago, mostly because it remains very, very hard to convince yourself that the answer might be, yes, Manchester United really aren't all that. Indeed they have taken on the form of the Premier League's proto-middle of the pack side: 10th in the table, an expected goal difference (xGD) of scarcely over zero, one that bounds just below that mark when you scrub penalties out of the equation (npxG). It is 10s, 10s, 10s across the board for Erik Ten Hag but unlike the ball room -- or those Arsenal teams where Arsene Wenger insisted he could find space for Mesut Ozil, Santi Cazorla, Jack Wilshere and Aaron Ramsey -- I simply do not like what I'm seeing.
If this team were managed by Roy Hodgson everyone would be talking about why no one is talking about them. But this is Manchester United Football Club we're talking about. Everyone is talking about them all the time. Ten Hag is perhaps lucky that the great takeover tumult has moved so many of the millions of eyeballs away from events on the pitch. Of course it should be said that such turbulent times are not the easiest for any manager; Thomas Tuchel, for instance, did not become a bad manager the moment Chelsea were placed into special measures last year and their form fell off a cliff. He can, and has, pointed to the many injuries that have afflicted the likes of Lisandro Martinez, Luke Shaw and Raphael Varane. Jadon Sancho and Antony have both missed time for off-field disciplinary issues, for the former the most likely conclusion to them is that he leaves the club.
It would also doubtless help too if Andre Onana stopped making so many cataclysmic errors: eight games into his Premier League career he ranks near the top of the shots faced chart and near the bottom for goals prevented (a metric that compares the post-shot xG value of the shots a keeper faces with the number of goals he concedes). That is a worrying cocktail for any goalkeeper, particularly one under the harshest of spotlights. Ten Hag might reasonably have expected a drop down in form from the man who carried Inter to the Champions League final. He couldn't have imagined this.
Then there is the worrying drop off of Casemiro, who in so many ways seems to be a shadow of the player he was last season. That might be systemic, a reflection of the wide spaces the veteran has had to cover when Mason Mount and Bruno Fernandes are ahead of him. It might be deliberate; he is clearly playing further forward than last season as United try to transition into a team that wins high turnover. It might just be what happens to a 31-year-old with well over 600 games in the tank.
Casemiro's dramatic change
Per 90 Premier League minutes
| 2022-23 | 2023-24 | |
|---|---|---|
Touches | 72.42 | 69.52 |
Passes in attacking third | 8.55 | 11.67 |
Shots | 1.35 | 1.86 |
Ball recoveries | 8.11 | 5.37 |
Interceptions | 2.37 | 1.99 |
Duel success | 55.3% | 46.2% |
Aerial success | 65.1% | 54.2% |
With Marcus Rashford out of form too you can run your finger down United's spine and find cracks and snaps all along it. If these key players can all recover their form and fitness then the Red Devils would find themselves going places. Some will. Onana seems unlikely to deliver ricks with the same consistency over the course of a whole season. Rashford and Bruno Fernandes have three goals from a combined 5.6 xG, the goals should flow even if the former might not find a streak as hot as last season.
Equally, not everything will fix itself. United might look a defensive force when Varane anchors their defense but the one consistent facet of his time in England has been his questionable availability. A top-tier right winger is not just going to emerge. Casemiro ... who knows if he will ever be the force he was last season? If this isn't the drop off then it is at the very least fast approaching.
It is unlikely then that this particularly profound slump continues forever but it is no more probable that the lightning United seemed to catch early this year will be caught again.
Is this something or nothing? It's not something but it's not nothing either
2. Arsenal losing their attacking mojo
Through eight games, Arsenal's npxG might make for worrying reading at London Colney. The Gunners sit 12th in the Premier League, right between West Ham and Wolverhampton Wanderers, hardly the great scoring juggernauts of the English game. A year ago Mikel Arteta's side were one of Europe's most relentless attacks, now they are seemingly grinding out wins by the odd goal.
In part what appears to be caution from Arsenal is an inevitable response to the way in which their title challenge fell apart last season. The goals kept flowing in those dramatic late fight backs against Bournemouth and Southampton, unfortunately at both ends. Premier League champions tend not to concede 43 goals and so it proved last season. In 2023-24, the defense seems to have improved, where once it was giving up just over one npxG per game now it has dropped to 0.8. William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes deliver authority and composure, with only Manchester City allowing opponents fewer touches in their penalty area.
It isn't just without the ball that Arsenal look more controlled. They are slower, their direct speed (a metric that assesses how many metres the ball advances towards goal per second) dropping by 18 percent from 1.2. More and more of their possessions contain nine or more passes. The average number of passes they complete per possession was at 6.6 in 2022-23. Now it is at 7.8. Fewer solo possessions, fewer forward passes, fewer through balls: everything is being set up to ensure that when Arsenal go for the big swing, their guard is up.
It is not as if all the diminished npxG can be put at the feet of a cautious manager either. After all, Arteta has been able to deploy his first choice front three of Gabriel Jesus, Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli for all of 14 minutes this season. It is hard to believe that Arsenal wouldn't be more fleet of foot with them in the side.
As for the non-penalty of it all, it is worth noting that the Gunners have had a disproportionate number of penalties, five already this season. That raft of spot kicks is more likely a quirky streak than anything else, one that warps Arsenal's numbers quite a bit. It is perhaps no wonder that there was no racking up of the open play shots at Bournemouth when two penalties in 11 minutes took them from 1-0 up to 3-0 up whilst the spot kick Eddie Nketiah won a few moments before Takehiro Tomiyasu's red card against Crystal Palace set the tone for a different game. Put those penalties back into the xG table and things look altogether rosier for Arsenal, who find themselves in a six-team clump around 15.2.
While it certainly seems credible that Arteta has introduced a measure more caution to his side, this is not a team that cannot make the big chances. After all, how do they keep getting into the penalty area to win fouls in the first place?
Is this something or nothing? Not much at all
3. Sheffield United and Luton in trouble already
Prior to the start of the season there was notable unanimity among pundits, fans and the media that two of the Premier League's bottom three places would be occupied by the sides who had finished second and third in the Championship. Even Sheffield United and Luton seemed to be acting like their stay at the top table would be a short one. Cash in your winnings and make for the exit seemed to be the approach.
In the case of the former, there is nothing in the eight games they have played so far to disabuse anyone of their doom. United have just one point to their name, averaging less than a goal per match while conceding nearly three. Already speculation is swirling over the future of Paul Heckingbottom, the turbulence in the dugout a reflection of a club that has achieved success in spite of its owners rather than due to them.
Ultimately the Blades look a long way from the 17th best team in the league. They are giving up 2.5 xG per game to their opposition, nearly 10 percent more than any Premier League side since 2020-21. Their 0.8 xG at the other end is also the worst mark over the last four seasons. Think of the worst this competition has had to offer in recent years: West Bromwich Albion in 2020-21, Norwich the following year. At the moment Sheffield United are a fair distance worse.
For Luton, it's not quite that bad. Make no mistake, plenty of teams have gotten relegated playing football of their level but at the moment they look like a team with half a chance, sat 17th in the actual table and 16th in terms of xG difference. They might not set the world alight but they do contrive to make chances for their forwards, particularly Carlton Morris, with their more direct style of football at least offering a stylistic headache to Premier League sides.
Luton's best chance of survival is probably nothing more than them finding two more teams worse than them. Burnley look like a promising option in that regard, a team that is all too easy for opponents to play through, while Fulham -- more on them later -- need only to have results reflective of performances to get dragged into the mire. However it is Bournemouth that pose the most intriguing question. Theirs is a talent pool far superior to the Hatters but so far one that is struggling to get results.
Andoni Iraola's side are giving up 2.3 xG to opponents per game, right now opponents are not exactly struggling to quickly move the ball through them. That might change if the new high-pressing system really clicks into gear -- Bournemouth allow the sixth fewest passes per defensive action -- and if one were looking for signs of optimism it would be the number of ball recoveries they make in the final third, more for instance than Arsenal or Manchester City. A tough run of games has brought few points so far but when the fixture list eases, results might swing Bournemouth's way ... or Bill Foley and company might blink, pick the wrong manager and hand a great shot at survival to Luton.
Is this something or nothing? For Sheffield United it's something but Luton might not be doomed yet
4. Newcastle: the league's best scorers
The Magpies qualification for the Champions League last season was largely credited to their exceptional defense with star turns from the likes of Nick Pope and Sven Botman. However, after the World Cup, Eddie Howe's side started to prosper as an attacking force. They might not have been averaging more goals but the quality of the chances they were creating was steadily improving and their npxG per game rocketed up from 1.6 to 2.0. Into 2023-24 that number has held solid but goals that weren't necessarily flowing in the spring have arrived. After their 8-0 crushing of Sheffield United the Magpies are the league's leading scorers on 20.
A game like that will bump up anyone's numbers but Newcastle were still flying high in the xG table before their last game. Intriguingly they are not doing so through a boatload of shots. It is just that the ones they take tend to be very good indeed.
The average shot across the Premier League this season has an npxG value of 0.114. The team with the second highest npxG per shot in the division is West Ham at 0.137. Newcastle's average shot is a whole eight percent better at 0.149. Alexander Isak in particular just gets himself in good positions before he lets an effort get away, the Swede has always had the raw attributes of a striker but he might have developed a poacher's mindset too. With a player like him leading the line, Newcastle could well be an attack to be really feared even by the Premier League's best.
Is this something or nothing? It's certainly starting to look like something
5. Fulham are solidifying in midtable
One of last season's most miraculous stories was the presence of Fulham -- widely tipped to go straight back down for the third time in a row. The football they played was, at best, upper lower table, 14th in xG, 18th in opponent xG. Teams have gone down with much better than that. Leicester City actually did. All the breaks came Fulham's way. After years of being discounted in the Premier League, Aleksandar Mitrovic got on an early season heater. Bernd Leno excelled at the other end. Five of the 30 red cards dished out went to the Cottagers' opponents.
Such good fortune tends not to hold and the omens were not good for a team that replaced its star striker Mitrovic, now at Al-Hilal, with a forward in Raul Jimenez who has six Premier League goals since his career-altering head injury. Still, eight games through the season, they are more than adequately positioned, 12th in the table, level on points with Chelsea. The battle for west London supremacy would appear to be very live.
Don't expect it to be for much longer, however. Fulham's xG difference of -6.97 is the fourth worst in the Premier League and though we are still at the stage of the season where individual games can have a major warping effect on those numbers, it is hardly as if it all came from their shellacking at the hands of Manchester City. In xG terms, it was Brentford who ripped them to shreds, as did Arsenal and *gulp* Everton. The Cottagers might have picked up three points in that latter game and one against the Gunners but two of their other three positive results have been wins at home to Luton and Sheffield United. Those matches won't come around as frequently as Fulham will need them to and right now Marco Silva's men look like they need all the soft games they can get.
Is this something or nothing? Quite probably nothing
